Title page

Contents

Acknowledgements 4

Disclaimer 5

Abbreviations 6

Foreword By The WTO Director-General 8

Executive Summary 10

A. Introduction 18

B. The reshaping of global trade 26

1. A more fragmented and less predictable trade policy environment 28

2. Trade policy headwinds and uncertainty start to affect trade flows 30

3. In other areas, trade and trade policy continue to make progress 35

4. Conclusions 46

C. The impact of security concerns on trade 48

1. Introduction 50

2. The changing relationship between trade and security 50

3. Fragmentation is unlikely to increase security 58

4. Re-globalization can contribute to a more resilient and thus safer world 59

5. Conclusions 62

D. Re-globalization to reduce poverty and inequality 64

1. Introduction 66

2. The effects of globalization on poverty and inequality 66

3. The effects of fragmentation on poverty and inequality 70

4. How re-globalization can be made more inclusive 73

5. Conclusions 87

E. Re-globalization to promote environmental sustainability 90

1. Introduction 92

2. Trade can contribute to environmental sustainability 92

3. The costs of fragmentation on environmental sustainability 95

4. The environmental gains from re-globalization 104

5. Conclusions 110

F. Conclusion 112

Bibliography 114

Figure 1. The great collapse of world trade, 1929-32 19

Figure 2. The rise and fall and rise again of global economic integration, 1830-2020 21

Figure B.1. Trade concerns raised in the Market Access, SPS and TBT Committees, 1996-2022 (left), and the number of trade concerns raised in the Council for Trade... 28

Figure B.2. The number of newly imposed countervailing measures, 1995-2022 29

Figure B.3. Trade policy uncertainty index, 2003-21 30

Figure B.4. Global trade as a share of GDP, 1970-2021 31

Figure B.5. Trade as a share of GDP in selected economies, 1970-2021 31

Figure B.6. Ratio of value-added exports to gross exports, 1970-2018 32

Figure B.7. Growth decomposition of global trade as a share of GDP, 2000-08 and 2010-18 33

Figure B.8. US imports of products affected by 25 per cent import tariffs (left), and products not affected by tariffs (right) 34

Figure B.9. Trade within and between hypothetical geopolitical blocs, January 2019 to December 2022 35

Figure B.10. Share of potential bottleneck products in global exports, 2000-21 36

Figure B.11. Evolution of trade costs 1996-2018 (left) and the level of trade costs in 2018 (right), by income group 37

Figure B.12. Evolution of trade costs 1996-2018 (left) and the level of trade costs in 2018 (right), by broad sector 38

Figure B.13. Growth in global imports of environmental goods, 2000-21 39

Figure B.14. Decline of trade costs in digitally deliverable services, 1996-2018 39

Figure B.15. Growth of digitally delivered services exports, 2005-22 40

Figure B.16. Share of global merchandise exports volume by income group, 2001-21 40

Figure B.17. Average annual growth in merchandise trade volume of selected economies, 2010-21 41

Figure B.18. Average annual growth in GVC participation of selected economies, 2010-20 43

Figure B.19. Exports of digitally delivered services by income level, 2015 and 2022 44

Figure B.20. Growth in digitally delivered services exports of LDCs 44

Figure B.21. Bangladesh's exports of computer services by subsector, fiscal year 2017-18 to 2020-21 45

Figure B.22. Exports of intermediate services by income group, 2015 and 2021 46

Figure C.1. Quantitative restrictions in force notified under GATT 1994 Article XXI are increasing 50

Figure C.2. National security-related trade concerns raised in WTO committees are rising 51

Figure C.3. The share of trade affected by trade sanctions is increasing 52

Figure C.4. Economic policy uncertainty is on the rise 52

Figure C.5. The world is becoming less peaceful 53

Figure C.6. Trade substitution across products eased export shortfalls 55

Figure C.7. Imports were critical to respond to the infant formula shortage in the United States 56

Figure C.8. There is a strong correlation between trade openness and lower conflict probability 57

Figure D.1. The pace of economic convergence has slowed down in recent years 66

Figure D.2. Trade openness can go hand in hand with economic inclusion 67

Figure D.3. International trade has contributed to reducing extreme poverty 68

Figure D.4. Fragmentation may slow down or prevent economic convergence 72

Figure D.5. Greater international trade cooperation supports economic convergence 76

Figure D.6.1. Ad valorem equivalents of services restrictions (by sector) 79

Figure D.6.2. GVC participation and ad valorem equivalents of services restrictions (by region) 79

Figure D.7. Improving digital infrastructure and regulation reduces trade costs 81

Figure E.1. High-income economies tend to be net importers of carbon emissions 93

Figure E.2. Technology improvements had a strong impact in reducing CO₂ emissions between 1995 and 2018 95

Figure E.3. Trade-related environmental policies have increased in recent years 98

Figure E.4. Some environmental measures have raised concerns in the WTO 99

Figure E.5. There is potential to diversify the supply of EV battery materials 103

Figure E.6. Carbon emissions intensity for digitally delivered services is relatively low 104

Figure E.7. There is no correlation between renewable energy share and exports of energy-intensive products 105

Figure E.8. Green comparative advantage enables substantial global emissions reduction with limited economic costs 106

Boxes

Box B.1. The expansion of global value chains and the measurement of international trade 32

Box B.2. The impact of China-United States trade tensions 34

Box B.3. The nascent digital services sector in Bangladesh 45

Box D.1. Services trade-opening and manufacturing GVC participation in the Middle East and North Africa region 79

Box D.2. Ongoing activities at the WTO related to e-commerce regulation 80

Box D.3. International cooperation on skills, infrastructure, and regulatory gap is diverse 82

Box E.1. Fragmentation can hinder access to raw materials in the green transition 103

Box E.2. Trade policies to address plastics pollution 107

Opinion pieces

Connected services: A pathway to development 42

The Future of Global Trade 54

Re-globalization or fragmentation: choices and challenges 74

Re-globalizing subsidies for a sooner, fairer green future 102

Re-globalization around green trade: challenges and opportunities for Africa 109