국가전략정보포털

Executive Summary 6

Shaky China
Five scenarios for Xi Jinping's third term 8
　Three trends shaping China's next five years : slower growth, external pressure and increased centralization of power  8
　Five Scenarios for a shaky China 10
　Likelihood of scenarios 13
　Dealing with a Shaky China 13
　Analyzing opportunities and risks 13
　Planning preparation and mitigation measures 15
　Tracking Triggers 7

Scenario Methodology 21

Scenario Descriptions 29
　Shaky China 30
　Confrontational China 34
　Successful China 38
　Restrained China 42
　Reformist China 46

Factor Descriptions 51
　China - US relations 52
　China's role in blocs and coalitions 54
　China's hard power projection 56
　China's economic governance model 58
　China's domestic economic sustainability 60
　China in the global economy 62
　China's macro growth path 64
　China's technological independence 66
　China's innovation capacity 68
　China as a digital actor 70
　China's political system 72
　China's stability and social policy 75
　Cross - strait relations 77
　Energy system and supply 79
　Food and water systems and supply 81

Acknowledgements and Imprint 84