국가전략정보포털

Title page

Contents

Abstract 4

Résumé 5

Acknowledgements 6

1. Introduction and main findings 9

2. Looking at the past: Growth accounting 11

Past trends in employment outcomes 11

Accounting for the link between employment outcomes and economic growth 13

Results of the growth accounting exercise 15

3. Looking ahead: Labour force projections and growth scenarios 20

Projections and hypothetical scenarios on labour force developments 20

Projecting future growth under different labour market scenarios 26

Results of the growth projection exercise 27

4. Policy implications 29

References 31

Annex A. Additional Figures and Tables 35

Figure 1. The total employment input has increased in most countries 12

Figure 2. Hours worked have declined in most OECD countries, especially for men 13

Figure 3. Accounting for different contributing factors to economic growth across the OECD 16

Figure 4. Women's rising employment rates have substantially contributed to economic growth 18

Figure 5. Women's rising share among the employed offsets declines in hours worked per worker 19

Figure 6. Labour force participation rate scenarios, Part one 24

Figure 7. Labour force participation rate scenarios, Part two 25

Figure 8. Further gains in growth from closing gender participation and working hours gaps 28

Annex Tables

Table A A.1. Summary of data series used in growth accounting 40

Table A A.2. Country-specific notes for the data series 41

Table A A.3. Accounting for different contributing factors to economic growth (2000-2022) 42

Table A A.4. Decomposition of employment and working hours components (2000-2022) 43

Table A A.5. Summary of data series used in growth projections 44

Table A A.6. Output projections under different scenarios (annual growth) 45

Table A A.7. Output projections under different scenarios (total growth effect) 46

Annex Figures

Figure A A.1. The size of the working age population has grown in most OECD countries 35

Figure A A.2. Total headcount labour force scenarios, Part one 36

Figure A A.3. Total headcount labour force scenarios, Part two 37

Figure A A.4. Working hours scenarios, Part one 38

Figure A A.5. Working hours scenarios, Part two 39