1. Introduction 1

2. Derivation of the Emissions Impacts of Supply-side Interventions 5
2.1. Substitution to Other Forms of Energy 9
2.2. When Could Leakage Be Zero? The Case of Hotelling Dynamics 10

3. Estimating Market Leakage 11
3.1. General Principles for Estimating Leakage Parameters 11
3.2. Estimates of Demand Elasticities 15
3.3. Estimates of Supply Elasticities 17

4. Estimates of Emissions Intensities 18

5. Quantitative Application 22

6. Conclusion 30

7. References 31

Appendix 35
A.1. Sensitivity Approach to Emissions Intensity Calculation 35
A.2. Detailed Results under a 20-Year GWP 38
A.3. The Effect of Dynamics 40