목차
Title page
Contents
ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS 6
DEFINITIONS OF SUBREGIONS 7
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 8
Executive Summary 10
COUNTRY COVERAGE 11
KEY FINDINGS ON SHORT-TERM ENERGY SECURITY 11
KEY FINDINGS ON THE ENERGY TRANSITION AND ENERGY SECURITY IN THE LONGER TERM 13
The use of coal, oil, and gas in the region is on the decline through 2060 14
Renewable energy can gradually replace fossil fuels, aided by energy efficiency 14
Greater investment will be needed to achieve the Net Zero 2060 goal 15
PART 1. SHORT-TERM ENERGY SECURITY IN THE REGION: THE CRISIS IS NOT OVER 17
REDEFINING ENERGY SECURITY 17
GAS SECURITY 19
Impact on Russia's gas production 22
Impact on countries in the region 23
Gas security in the EU4 and Western Balkan countries 26
Gas security in Central Asia 27
The limits of Türkiye's ability to absorb Russia's surplus gas 28
OIL SECURITY: ONGOING SHIFTS 30
ENERGY SECURITY AND THE ENERGY TRANSITION 35
PART 2. THE ENERGYTRANSITION: A PATHWAY TO A NET ZERO REGION BY 2060 37
WHAT DOES IT TAKE TO DECARBONIZE THE REGION? 42
TRANSFORMING THE REGION'S GAS SECTOR 45
DEVELOPING A HYDROGEN SECTOR 48
TRANSFORMING THE REGION'S POWER SECTOR 52
The importance of system flexibility for increasing the role of renewables 55
The combined effect of better demand response and heightened production of green hydrogen 59
The role of regional power exchanges for energy security 59
TRANSFORMING ENERGY USE IN THE TRANSPORT, BUILDINGS, AND INDUSTRIAL SECTORS 62
Buildings 63
Transport 65
Industry 66
REFERENCES 68
APPENDIX 1. METHODOLOGY OF THE WORLD BANK'S ENERGY MODEL 72
APPENDIX 2. DECARBONIZING DISTRICT HEATING 77
APPENDIX 3. LOW-CARBON FERTILIZER PRODUCTION IN CENTRAL ASIA 79
APPENDIX 4. SELECTED LIQUID FUEL PRICING SUBSIDIES IMPLEMENTED IN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA 81
APPENDIX 5. GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS IN THE EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA REGION IN 2020 82
Table 2.1. Projected investment needs in Europe and Central Asia in the reference and Net Zero 2060 scenarios, by sector 44
Table 2.2. Day-ahead, intra-day, and futures markets of power exchanges in Europe and Central Asia, by country 61
Figure ES.1. Actual and projected energy-related greenhouse gas emissions by sector in Europe and Central Asia under the Net Zero 2060 scenario, 2019-60 13
Figure ES.2. Energy sector milestones on the pathway to Net Zero Energy 2060 in Europe and Central Asia region 16
Figure 1.1. Net imports in Europe and Central Asia region as share of total energy supply, by country and fuel type, 2019 18
Figure 1.2. Domestic fossil fuel production as percentage of total energy supply (self-sufficiency) in Europe and Central Asia, by country, 2020 19
Figure 1.3. Pipeline gas flows from the Russian Federation to the European Union, January 2021-June 2023 20
Figure 1.4. Actual and projected natural gas prices at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility, January 2016-July 2031 21
Figure 1.5. Actual and projected changes in Russian natural gas production from 2021 levels, 2022-25 22
Figure 1.6. Gas dependence and gas import dependence in Europe and Central Asia, by country, 2020 23
Figure 1.7. Underground storage capacity as a share of total consumption in Europe and CentralAsia, by subregion, 2021 24
Figure 1.8. Explicit and implicit natural gas subsidies within Europe and Central Asia as a share of GDP, 2022 25
Figure 1.9. Natural gas consumption subsidies in selected countries in Europe and Central Asia, 2010-22 26
Figure 1.10. Projected natural gas balance in Central Asia in the base case and gas union scenarios, 2023-25 28
Figure 1.11. Actual and projected gas production, consumption, and import dependence in Türkiye, 2019-30 29
Figure 1.12. Actual and hypothetical Turkish imports of Russian gas, 2019-30 30
Figure 1.13. Seaborne crude oil exports by the Russian Federation, by destination, January 2022 and July 2023 31
Figure 1.14. Exports of Russian oil products, by destination, January 2022 and July 2023 32
Figure 1.15. EU imports of Russian crude oil and oil products, January 2019-April 2023 33
Figure 1.16. Domestic gasoline prices without taxes in selected countries in Europe and Central Asia, January 2019-July 2023 34
Figure 1.17. Global upstream investments in oil and gas, 2010-26 35
Figure 2.1. Actual and projected energy-related greenhouse gas emissions by sector in Europe and Central Asia under the reference, partial decarbonization,... 38
Figure 2.2. Actual and projected shares of clean and fossil fuels in the primary energy mix in Europeand Central Asia under the reference and Net Zero 2060 scenarios,... 39
Figure 2.3. Projected final energy consumption in Europe and Central Asia under the reference and Net Zero 2060 scenarios, by fuel type 40
Figure 2.4. Energy sector milestones on the pathway to Net Zero Energy 2060 in Europe and Central Asia region 43
Figure 2.5. Actual and projected global consumption of natural gas under the reference and Net Zero 2060 scenarios, 2019-60 45
Figure 2.6. Actual and projected global consumption of natural gas under the World Bank's Net Zero 2060 scenario, by sector, 2019-60 46
Figure 2.7. Actual and projected production, consumption, and trade balance in Europe and Central Asia under the World Bank's Net Zero 2060 scenario,... 46
Figure 2.8. Actual and projected net export balance in Europe and Central Asia under the World Bank's Net Zero 2060 scenario, 2019-60 47
Figure 2.9. Actual and projected consumption of natural gas in Europe and Central Asia under the World Bank's Net Zero 2060 scenario, by sector, 2019-60 47
Figure 2.10. Actual and projected global consumption of low-carbon hydrogen and share of totalfinal energy consumption under the World Bank's Net Zero 2060 scenario,... 48
Figure 2.11. Actual and projected production of low-carbon hydrogen in Europe and Central Asia under the World Bank's Net Zero 2060 scenario, 2019-60 50
Figure 2.12. Projected production of low-carbon hydrogen from electrolysis and from fossil fuelswith carbon capture, usage, and storage in Europe and... 51
Figure 2.13. Project pipeline in 2023 and projected production of low-carbon hydrogen in 2060 inEurope and Central Asia under the World Bank's Net Zero 2060 scenario,... 51
Figure 2.14. Projected use of low-carbon hydrogen sector in Europe and Central Asia in 2060 underthe World Bank's Net Zero 2060 scenario, by subregion 52
Figure 2.15. Aggregate trends in electricity generation for ECA countries, 2010-20 53
Figure 2.16. Share of renewables in annual electricity generation in Europe and Central Asia, by country, 2019 54
Figure 2.17. Actual and projected electricity generation by fuel in Europe and Central Asia under thereference and Net Zero 2060 scenarios, 2025-60 54
Figure 2.18. Flexible electricity system resources and the role of demand aggregators 59
Figure 2.19. Actual and projected total final energy consumption in Europe and Central Asia(excluding Russia and Belarus) under the reference and Net Zero 2060 scenarios,... 62
Figure 2.20. Actual and projected total final energy consumption by buildings in Europe and CentralAsia (excluding Russia and Belarus) under the reference and... 63
Figure 2.21. Actual and projected number of residential heat pumps in Europe and Central Asiaunder the World Bank's Net Zero 2060 scenario, by subregion,... 64
Figure 2.22. Actual and projected uptake of insulation measures and heat pumps in Europe andCentral Asia under the reference and Net Zero 2060 scenarios,... 64
Figure 2.23. Actual and projected total final energy consumption in the transport sector in Europe and Central Asia (excluding Russia and Belarus) under... 65
Figure 2.24. Actual and projected number of electric vehicles in Europe and Central Asia under theWorld Bank's Net Zero 2060 scenario, by vehicle type,... 66
Figure 2.25. Actual and projected final energy consumption of industry sector in Europe and Central Asia under the reference and Net Zero 2060 scenarios,... 67
Boxes
Box 2.1. World Bank Group support of green hydrogen projects in Poland and Chile 49
Box 2.2. Delaying the transmission of energy price shocks to consumers: Good or bad? 57
Box Tables
Table B2.2.1. Ability to mitigate transmission of short-term price shocks to consumers in Europe and Central Asia, by country 58
Table A1.1. Data sources for and inputs into the model 74
Table A4.1. Selected liquid fuel pricing measures implemented in Europe and Central Asia in 2022, by country 81
Table A5.1. Global greenhouse emissions and emissions within Europe and Central Asia, by country, 2020 82
Figure A1.1. Structure of the KINESYS model 72
Figure A3.1. Levelized cost of green (solar-powered), blue, and gray ammonia production in Central Asia under the Net Zero 2060 scenario 80
