국가전략정보포털

Title page

Contents

Abstract 3

1. Introduction 4

2. Theoretical Model 10

3. Empirical Design 16

4. Data 22

5. Results: Labor Market Tightness 24

6. Results: Labor Demand Effects 29

7. Discussion 41

8. Conclusion 43

References 44

Online Appendix 51

A. Hiring-Cost Adjusted Version of Fundamental Law of Labor Demand 52

B. Empirical Two-Stage Least Squares Specification 59

C. Data: Further Details 60

D. Labor Market Tightness: Further Evidence 66

E. Bartik-Instrument Diagnostics 73

F. Regression Results: Further Evidence 81

G. Flow-Adjusted Labor Market Tightness 87

H. Discussion: Further Evidence 90

References 100

Table 1. Effects of Wages and Labor Market Tightness on Employment 30

Table 2. Magnitude of Pre-Match Hiring Cost 32

Table 3. First-Stage Regressions 34

Table 4. Labor Demand Effects by Labor Outcome 38

Table 5. Feedback Regression of Tightness on Aggregate (Un-)Employment 40

Figure 1. Feedback Cycle via Labor Market Tightness 15

Figure 2. Beveridge Curve 26

Figure 3. Labor Market Tightness and Pre-Match Hiring Costs 28

Figure 4. Sensitivity and Heterogeneity of Labor Demand Effects 36

Table C1. Notification Shares of Registered Vacancies in All Vacancies 64

Table C2. Descriptive Statistics 65

Table E1. Summary of Rotemberg Weights 73

Table E2. Shifters of Demand and Supply for Employment Shares of Top 5 Rotemberg Occupations 78

Table F1. Reduced-Form Regressions 82

Table F2. Labor Demand Effects by Lag Difference 83

Table F3. Labor Demand Effects by Specification 84

Table F4. Labor Demand Effects by Establishment Size 85

Table F5. Labor Demand Effects by Territory and AKM Effects 86

Table H1. Employment and Wage Effects of the German Statutory Minimum Wage 93

Table H2. Comparison of Minimum Wage Simulations 94

Table H3. Wage and Skill Concessions 98

Figure C1. Delineation of Commuting Zones 62

Figure D1. Labor Market Tightness in Germany over Time 66

Figure D2. Beveridge Curve by Occupational Areas 67

Figure D3. Labor Market Tightness by Commuting Zones 68

Figure D4. Labor Market Tightness vs. Survey Information on Labor Shortage 69

Figure D5. Hourly Wage Rate and Pre-Match Hiring Costs 70

Figure D6. Labor Market Tightness and Hiring Indicators 71

Figure D7. Vacancy- vs. Employment-Based Firm-Specific Labor Market Tightness 72

Figure E1. Heterogeneity of Just-Identified Coefficient Estimates 76

Figure F1. First-Stage Regressions 81

Figure H1. Labor Market Tightness and Employment Trends 95

Figure H2. Labor Market Tightness and Employment Trends by Labor Outcome 97