Title page

Contents

Abstract 2

1. Introduction 3

2. Institutional Setting and Labor Market Context 6

2.1. Overview of the H-2B Visa Program 6

2.2. Employing an H-2B Visa Worker 7

2.3. The Post-Recession, Pre-Pandemic Labor Market 9

2.4. The 2018 TLC Application Spike 10

3. Identification Strategy 13

4. Data 14

4.1. Characteristics of H-2B Firms and Jobs in the Research Sample 15

5. Application Timing and H-2B Outcomes 16

5.1. Additional Support for Identification Assumptions 16

5.2. Effect of Applying Early on Eventual H-2B Visa Approvals 18

6. Results 19

6.1. Does H-2B Hiring Crowd Out Other Employment? 19

6.2. Effects on Payrolls and Average Pay 21

6.3. Does H-2B Hiring Affect Firm Performance? 24

7. Heterogeneity and Spillovers Analysis 26

7.1. Heterogeneity by Immigration Enforcement Environment 26

7.2. Heterogeneity by Firm Productivity Measures 27

7.3. Testing for Spillovers 29

8. Conclusions 30

References 33

Appendix 36

A. Matching Procedure 36

B. Supplemental Figures and Tables 37

Table 1. 2017 Firm-Level Summary Statistics 17

Table 2. Heterogeneous Effects by Firm Exposure to E-Verify Mandates 28

Table 3. Heterogeneous Effects by Initial Firm Size 28

Table 4. Heterogeneous Effects by Initial Firm Labor Productivity 29

Table 5. Testing for Spillovers 31

Figure 1. H-2B Visa Program Application Process 7

Figure 2. Supply and Demand of H-2B Visa Workers 10

Figure 3. Labor Market Indicators 11

Figure 4. Proportion of 2HFY 2018 TLC Applications Processed before February 27, by Hour of Day Received on January 1 12

Figure 5. Distribution of Hourly Wages Reported on Certified Jan. 1, 2018 TLCs 16

Figure 6. Placebo Tests 18

Figure 7. The Effect of Applying Early on H-2B Approvals 19

Figure 8. The Effect of Applying Early on Employment, by Quarter 21

Figure 9. The Effect of Applying Early on Log 2HFY Payroll per Worker 22

Figure 10. The Effect of Applying Early on Payroll, by Quarter 23

Figure 11. The Effect of Applying Early on Annual Revenues 24

Figure 12. The Effect of Applying Early on Firm Activity (1[Ann. Payroll 〉 0]) 25

Table B1. Conversion Rate of USCIS Approvals to DoS Issuances 37

Table B2. Top Five Industries and Occupations Listed on Jan 1., 2018 TLC Applications 39

Table B3. Estimation Results from Equation (1)-DoL Placebo Tests 39

Table B4. Estimation Results from Equation (1)-USCIS i129 Approvals ("First Stage") 40

Table B5. Estimation Results from Equation (1)-Quarterly Employment 41

Table B6. Estimation Results from Equation (1)-Quarterly Payroll 42

Table B7. Estimation Results from Equation (1)-Additional Outcomes 43

Figure B1. Supply and Demand of H-2B Visa Workers 37

Figure B2. Geographic Distribution of January 1, 2018 TLC Applications 38

Figure B3. Geographic Distribution of January 1, 2018 TLC Applications (per-worker basis) 38