국가전략정보포털

Title page

Contents

List of abbreviations 3

Executive summary 4

Introduction - Forecasting the far-right surge 6

1. Gloomy prospects 6

1.1. RADICALS MARCH ON IN THE MEMBER STATES 6

1.2. EP ELECTIONS BODE WELL FOR RADICALS 7

1.3. THE REPRESENTATIVE DEMOCRACY CRISIS SUSTAINS THE POPULIST FAR-RIGHT 8

2. But the devil is in the details 9

2.1. MUCH BARK BUT LITTLE BITE 9

2.1.1. Weak direct policy influence 10

2.1.2. Strong pull for the mainstream 14

2.2. SIMULATION EXPERIMENT FOR THE FAR-RIGHT'S POLICY IMPACT 15

3. A brave new world 17

Annex I: Description of the dataset 18

Annex II: Cohesion metrics 20

Annex III: Further notes on the simulations 20

Annex IV: Impacted sessions by policy area 22

Annex V: Likely failed procedures 23

Table 1. The number of voting sessions related to each policy area 19

Table 2. The average number and percentage of affected voting sessions by policy area 22

Table 3. Procedures that would have failed with greater than 50% probability 23

Figure 1. THE INFLUENCE OF POLITICAL GROUPS AS MEASURED BY AVERAGE SUCCESS RATE 10

Figure 2. THE INTERNAL COHESION OF POLITICAL GROUPS 11

Figure 3. THE COHESION OF HYPOTHETICAL COALITIONS 12

Figure 4. THE COHESION OF RADICAL RIGHT-WING MEPS IN THE MOST RELEVANT POLICY AREAS 13

Figure 5. THE NUMBER OF WRITTEN QUESTIONS TO THE COMMISSION BY POLITICAL GROUP 14

Figure 6. THE NUMBER OF AMENDMENTS SPONSORED BY POLITICAL GROUPS 14

Figure 7. THE SEAT PROJECTION USED IN SIMULATIONS 15

Figure 8. THE DISTRIBUTION OF VOTING SESSION BY PROCEDURE TYPE 18

Figure 9. THE EMPIRICAL DISTRIBUTION OF THE NUMBER OF SESSIONS WITH A DIFFERENT-THAN-ORIGINAL OUTCOME 21