Title page

Contents

Abstract 2

1. Introduction 3

2. Related Literature 5

3. Methodology 6

3.1. The EF Gap 7

3.2. Convergence 8

4. Results 8

4.1. Accounting for All Greenhouse Gasses 8

4.2. Direct and Production Emission Factors 10

4.3. Emission Factors and Per Capita Income 12

4.4. Contributors to Changes in Emission Factors 15

4.5. Evolution of the Emission Factor Frontier 17

4.6. Transition Risk 19

5. Conclusion 26

Supplementary Material 28

References 34

Table 1. Correlations of EF Levels with GDP Per Head Based on 5-year Windows 13

Table 2. Correlations of EF Growth with GDP Per Head Based on 5-year Windows 13

Table 3. Number of dyads falling into each tier, by type of emissions, 2015-2018 23

Table 4. Factors used to convert carbon in various units 28

Figure 1. Cross-country sectoral total GHG emission factors relative to CO₂ emission factors 9

Figure 2. Cross-country distributions of sectoral GHG emission factors 11

Figure 3. GHG emissions by income category (empty circles are off-scale) 12

Figure 4. Growth of GHG emission factors by income category and major sectors 14

Figure 5. Drivers of GHG emissions growth by major sector and income category 16

Figure 6. Bottom quartile of emission factors by sector 18

Figure 7. Gap to the emission factor frontier by region and sector, 2015-2018 (low gap threshold = frontier + std) 20

Figure 8. Evolution of the distance to the emission factor frontier by region and sector, 1995-2018 22

Figure 9. Tiered transition risks by dyad, 2015-2018 25