목차
Title page
Contents
ABBREVIATIONS 8
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 10
GLOSSARY 11
INTRODUCTION 15
MODULE 1: Setting the Repurposing Agenda 25
1.1. DESCRIBING THE COUNTRY'S ECONOMIC CONTEXT 25
1.2. REVIEWING AGRICULTURAL AND RURAL POLICY FRAMEWORKS 27
1.3. ASSESSING THE COHERENCE OF EXISTING POLICIES 28
1.3.1. Coherence with Government Objectives 30
1.3.2. Coherence of Government Policies 30
1.3.3. Coherence in Terms of Policy Effects 30
1.4. POLICY DIALOGUE TO SET THE REPURPOSING AGENDA 33
1.4.1. Policy Dialogue at the Global Level 33
1.4.2. Country-Level Policy Dialogue 36
1.5. USING EVIDENCE IN POLICY DIALOGUES 38
1.5.1. Barriers to the Supply and Use of Evidence in a Policy Dialogue About Repurposing 39
1.5.2. Enablers of an Evidence-informed Policy Dialogue 40
1.6. ASSESSING THE IMPLEMENTABILITY OF REPURPOSING STRATEGIES 41
MODULE 2: Public Expenditures on Agriculture 45
2.1. MEASURING PUBLIC EXPENDITURES ON AGRICULTURE 47
2.1.1. Why Monitor Public Expenditure on Agriculture 47
2.1.2. Country-level Analysis: Public Expenditure Reviews 49
2.1.3. Key Public Spending Indicators and Data Needs 52
2.2. GUIDE FOR CALCULATING PUBLIC EXPENDITURE INDICATORS 59
2.2.1. Data Collection and Preparation 60
2.2.2. Data Classification 64
MODULE 3: Price Incentives for Agricultural Commodities 73
3.1. KEY PRICE INCENTIVE INDICATORS: DEFINITIONS, CALCULATION, AND INTERPRETATION 73
3.1.1. Data Needs for Price Incentive Analysis 75
3.1.2. Calculating Price Incentive Indicators 76
3.1.3. Interpreting Price Incentive Indicators 83
3.2. GUIDE FOR PRICE INCENTIVE ANALYSIS 90
3.2.1. Preparing for Price Incentive Analysis 90
3.2.2. Price Gap Estimation 96
3.2.3. The Nominal Rate of Protection 99
3.2.4. The Nominal Rate of Assistance 99
3.2.5. The Market Development Gap 100
MODULE 4: Methods to Evaluate Policy Impacts 103
4.1. KEY CONSIDERATIONS TO GUIDE SELECTION OF THE MOST APPROPRIATE TOOL 104
4.1.1. Defining the Outcome(s) of Interest and Analytical Instruments 104
4.1.2. Available Methodological Approaches 106
4.2. SIMULATION-BASED MODELING METHODS 108
4.3. ECONOMETRIC METHODS 111
4.3.1. Randomized Control Trials 111
4.3.2. Differences-in-Differences 112
4.3.3. Regression Discontinuity 113
4.3.4. Instrumental Variables 114
4.4. QUALITATIVE METHODS 115
4.5. THE NECESSITY FOR MULTIPLE METHODS 116
MODULE 5: Tools to Understand the Political Economy of Repurposing Agricultural Policies 119
5.1. CONCEPTUAL APPROACHES TO POLITICAL ECONOMY ANALYSIS 119
5.1.1. What is Political Economy Analysis? 119
5.1.2. The Advocacy Coalition Framework 120
5.1.3/5.3.1. The Multiple Streams Framework 123
5.1.4/5.3.2. The Kaleidoscope Model 125
5.2. PRACTICAL STEPS TO UNDERTAKE POLITICAL ECONOMY ANALYSIS 127
5.2.1. Introduction: Key Variables and Levels of Analysis 127
5.2.2. The Macro Level: Characterizing Country Context 129
5.2.3. The Meso Level: Characterizing Food and Agriculture Institutions 130
5.2.4. The Micro Level: Political Economy Analysis of a Reform 132
CONCLUSIONS AND KEY TAKEAWAYS 136
REFERENCES 139
APPENDIX: Terms of Reference for Study on Repurposing Agricultural Subsidies 153
ANNEX 157
Table 1.1. Key Variables and Sources 26
Table 1.2. Policy Coherence Assessment Summary, Mali 31
Table 1.3. Global Policy Dialogue Avenues in the Repurposing Policies Agenda 34
Table 2.1. Functional Classification of food and agricultural projects and expenditure 62
Table 2.2. Examples of Agriculture Programs' Functional Classification 68
Table 2.3/Table 2.2. Examples of Agriculture Programs' Functional Classification 69
Table 2.4. Example of Approximating Spending on Each Commodity 71
Table 2.5. Example Spending for Maize (Year 1) 71
Table 3.1. Data Needs and Most Common Data Sources for Calculating Price Incentive Indicators 76
Table 3.2. CIF Price in Dakola for Rice Imported from Thailand 79
Table 3.3. Reference prices for rice in Burkina Faso in 2013-2016 80
Table 3.4. Price Gaps and Nominal Rates of Protection for rice in Burkina Faso in 2013-2016 81
Table 3.5. Share of Commodities in Agricultural Production Value in Bangladesh, (Average for 2011-2020) 91
Table 3.6. Commodity Data, Sources, and Examples for Wheat and Barley 94
Table 3.7. Examples and Sources of Information on Policies Affecting Prices, by Policy Type 95
Table 3.8. Key Data and Calculation of the PG for Imported Rice in Bangladesh, 2019 97
Table 3.9. Calculation of the Price Gap for a Net Exporter of Wheat 98
Table 3.10. NRP at the Farm Gate for Rice in Bangladesh, 2019 99
Table 3.11. NRA for Rice in Bangladesh, 2019 99
Table 3.12. Calculating MDG (Absolute Terms) 101
Table 4.1. Summary of Strengths and Limitations of Different Modeling Approaches 107
Table 4.2. Summary of Strengths and Limitations of Different Econometric Methods for Evaluating Policies 114
Table 5.1. Narratives of the Two Discourse Coalitions 122
Table 5.2. Indicators to Characterize the Country Context 130
Figure I.1. Agricultural Policy Support Instruments and Indicators 18
Figure I.2. Level and Composition of Global Support to Food and Agriculture (US$ Billion, Average 2013-2018) 20
Figure I.3. Nominal Rate of Assistance by Income Group 21
Figure 1.1. Key Agricultural Policy Frameworks, Rwanda 29
Figure 1.2. The Role of Coordination Institutions and Property Rights in Responding to Climate Change 38
Figure 1.3. Policy Implementation Domains 42
Figure 2.1. Classification of Public Expenditure 54
Figure 2.2. Agricultural Public Expenditure in Mali 55
Figure 2.3. Average Composition of Agricultural PE in Mali, 2005-2017 56
Figure 2.4. Funding for Food and Agriculture by Source 56
Figure 2.5. Key Aggregated Indicators of Public Expenditure 59
Figure 2.6. Example Structure of Public Expenditure Raw Data 64
Figure 2.7. Classification Tree for Agrifood Public Expenditures 65
Figure 2.8. Classification Tree for Administrative Costs 66
Figure 2.9. Classification Tree for Multipurpose Projects 67
Figure 2.10. Decision Tree for Sectoral Classification 70
Figure 3.1. NRP for Cotton at the Farm Gate in Selected East and Southern African Countries 85
Figure 3.2. Nominal Rate of Protection and Assistance for Maize in Malawi 87
Figure 3.3. MDG for Rice in Burkina Faso 89
Figure 3.4. MDG for Cotton in Mozambique 90
Figure 4.1. Analytical Approach Decision Tree 106
Figure 4.2. Impacts of Country-Specific Repurposing Scenarios 110
Figure 5.1. The ACF 121
Figure 5.2. The MSF 123
Figure 5.3. The Kaleidoscope Model of Policy Change 125
Figure 5.4. Political Economy Analysis Building Block Variables 128
Figure 5.5. The Three Levels of Political Economy Analysis 129
Figure 5.6. Process Net-Map of Agricultural Policy Processes 134
Boxes
Box 1.1. Rwanda's Agricultural Policy Strategies 29
Box 1.2. Mali's Agricultural Policy Coherence, Based on Public Expenditure Review 31
Box 2.1. Ag-Incentives and the International Organizations Consortium for Measuring the Policy Environment in Agriculture 47
Box 2.2. Trends of Public Expenditure on Agriculture in Mali and coherence against key strategic objectives 55
Box 2.3. MAFAP Public Expenditure Classification and COFOG 58
Box 3.1. Case Study: Calculating the RP, PG, and NRP for Rice in Burkina Faso 79
Box 3.2. Price Incentive Indicators to Inform Country-Level Policy Change: Cotton in Mozambique 85
Box 3.3. Farm Input Subsidies Narrowing Price Disincentives: The Case of Maize in Malawi 87
Box 3.4. The Market Development Gap for Imported Rice in Burkina Faso and Exported Cotton in Mozambique 89
Box 5.1. Why is Subsidy Policy Reform So Difficult? Insights from an Advocacy Coalition Framework Case Study of Electricity Subsidies for Groundwater... 121
Box 5.2. Using the MSF to Analyze the Introduction of Soda Tax in France 124
Box 5.3. Using the Kaleidoscope Model to understand the political economy of input subsidy reform in Zambia 126
Box 5.4. Macro- and Meso-level Political Economy in Tanzanian Agriculture: Analyzing Rice Policy Implementation 131
Annex Tables
Table A.1. Key Barriers and Enablers for Evidence Demand and Supply in Repurposing Policy Dialogue 157
Table A.2. Mapping a Subsidy Reform with the UIF: Factors and Key Questions 158
Table A.3a. PEs that directly benefit agents in the agriculture sector 160
Table A.3b. PEs that collectively benefit the agriculture sector rather than a specific agent 161
Table A.4. Rural Support Expenditures Classification 162
Table A.5. Selected PEA Tools and Approaches 162
