Title page

Contents

Acknowledgements 3

Glossary 7

Executive summary 9

Background 16

Context and rationale 17

Climate change 18

Population 19

Economic activity 20

Exposure to hazards 22

Objectives and scope 25

Methodology 26

Step 1. Literature review 26

Step 2. Working sessions 27

Step 3. Collection of numerical and spatial data 27

Step 4. Model urban growth scenarios 28

Step 5. Analyse the policy levers 33

Step 6. Develop recommendations 41

Potential for greenhouse gas emission reduction 42

2050 Forecast for population and land consumption 42

2050 Forecast for population density 48

2050 Forecast for green areas per capita 53

2050 Forecast for proximity to transport 56

2050 Forecast for energy consumption 57

2050 Forecast for greenhouse gas emissions 64

2050 Forecast for economic costs 65

Climate investments co-benefits 77

2050 Forecast for proximity to facilities 77

2050 Forecast for solid waste coverage 79

2050 Forecast for water demand 80

2050 Forecast for exposure to hazards 81

Discussion 84

Bibliography 88

Images

Image 1. Historical GHG emissions in Jordan 18

Image 2. GHG emissions per activity in Jordan 19

Image 3. Population density in Amman 20

Image 4. Economic clusters 21

Image 5. Spatial distribution of GHG emissions and urban clusters 22

Image 6. Population in Amman is exposed to hazards 23

Image 7. Economic activity in the city that is exposed to hazards 24

Image 8. Methodology of the urban growth model and sustainable urban expansion 26

Image 9. Urban planning tools 28

Image 10. Land consumption for each scenario 43

Image 11. Land loss characteristics for each scenario 44

Image 12. Urban expansion for the Business As Usual Scenario - 2050 45

Image 13. Urban expansion for the Plan Scenario - 2050 46

Image 14. Urban expansion for Ambitious Scenario - 2050 47

Image 15. Urban expansion for the Net Zero Scenario - 2050 48

Image 16. Population density distribution in 2020 49

Image 17. Population density distribution in the Business As Usual Scenario - 2050 50

Image 18. Population density distribution in the Plan Scenario - 2050 51

Image 19. Population density distribution in the Ambitious Scenario - 2050 52

Image 20. Population density distribution in the Net Zero Scenario - 2050 53

Image 21. Green areas in Amman 54

Image 22. Green areas per capita 55

Image 23. Energy related to buildings 60

Image 24. Energy consumption of Amman 62

Image 25. Renewable energy generation 64

Image 26. GHG emissions results 65

Image 27. Total capital expenditure of new infrastructure and local policies 71

Image 28. Cost for energy, fuel and commuting time per capita 73

Image 29. Potential proximity to infrastructure by 2050 78

Image 30. Solid waste coverage 79

Image 31. Water demand 80

Image 32. Potential population exposed to pluvial and fluvial floods by 2050 81

Image 33. Potential population exposed to landslides by 2050 82

Image 34. GHG reduction and costs 85

Image 35. Cumulative GHG emission reduction of urban planning and electrification of transport 86

Image 36. Cumulative GHG emission reduction of urban planning, demand side management and enforcement of buildings codes 87

Table 1. Main sources for policy lever definition 33

Table 2. Integrated results for land consumption and population density 55

Table 3. Integrated results for proximity to public transport 57

Table 4. Integrated results for energy consumption 60

Table 5. Integrated results for energy consumption 63

Table 6. Capital expenditures of new infrastructure and local policies 69

Table 7. Annual costs for municipal service per scenario 74

Table 8. Costs for extreme events 75

Table 9. Costs for GHG emissions 76

Table 10. Integrated results for proximity to infrastructure 78

Table 11. Integrated results for exposure to hazards 82