□ IEA는 해당 보고서를 통해 현재 주요국의 에너지 정책을 바탕으로 석유, 천연가스, 석탄 등 화석 연료 수요가 2030년께 정점에 달할 것으로 예측함. IEA는 또한 지난 10년간 전 세계 석유 사용량 증가의 3분의 2가량을 차지한 중국의 성장 속도 둔화와 전기자동차 이용 증가가 화석 연료 수요에 큰 영향을 미칠 것이라고 전망함
□ 2030년에는 전 세계 전기차 대수가 지금보다 10배 가까이 늘어날 것으로 내다보면서, 미국의 경우 2030년엔 신차의 50%가 전기차가 될 것이라는 게 IEA의 전망임. 이 같은 전망에도 불구하고 현재 추세로는 산업화 이전 대비 지구 기온 상승 폭을 섭씨 1.5도 이내로 제한하는 파리 기후협정 목표치에 도달하긴 어려울 것이라고 경고함. IEA에 따르면 석탄 사용은 2030년 이후 급격하게 감소하지만, 천연가스와 석유 사용량은 향후 20년간 정점에 가까운 수준을 유지할 것으로 예상됨
[출처] IEA사무총장 '중동 분쟁, 50년만의 오일쇼크 초래 위험' (2023.10.25.) / 한국경제
목차
Foreword 5
Acknowledgements 7
Executive summary 17
Overview and key findings 23
1. Introduction 25
1.1 A peak by 2030 for each of the fossil fuels 26
1.1.1 Coal: Scaling up clean power hastens the decline 27
1.1.2 Oil: End of the “ICE age” turns prospects around 28
1.1.3 Natural gas: Energy crisis marks the end of the “Golden Age” 29
1.2 A slowdown in economic growth in China would have huge implications for energy markets 31
1.2.1 China’s growth has defined the energy world in recent decades 31
1.2.2 Integrating a slowdown in China’s economy into the STEPS 32
1.2.3 Sensitivities in the Outlook 35
1.3 A boom of solar manufacturing could be a boon for the world 36
1.3.1 Solar module manufacturing and trade 37
1.3.2 Solar PV deployment could scale up faster to accelerate transitions 38
1.4 Pathway to a 1.5 °C limit on global warming is very tough, but it remains open 42
1.4.1 Four reasons for hope 42
1.4.2 Four areas requiring urgent attention 46
1.5 Capital flows are gaining pace, but not reaching the areas of greatest need 49
1.5.1 Fossil fuels 50
1.5.2 Clean energy 51
1.6 Transitions have to be affordable 52
1.6.1 Affordability for households 53
1.6.2 Affordability for industry 55
1.6.3 Affordability for governments 57
1.7 Risks on the road to a more electrified future 59
1.7.1 Managing risks for rapid electrification 60
1.7.2 Critical minerals underpin electrification 62
1.8 A new, lower carbon pathway for emerging market and developing economies is taking shape 63
1.9 Geopolitical tensions undermine energy security and prospects for rapid, affordable transitions 68
1.9.1 Clean energy in a low-trust world 69
1.9.2 Fossil fuels in a low-trust world 71
1.9.3 Risks of new dividing lines 72
1.10 As the facts change, so do our projections 73
1.10.1 Solar PV and wind generation 75
1.10.2 Natural gas 77
2. Setting the scene 79
2.1 New context for the World Energy Outlook 81
2.1.1 New clean energy economy 84
2.1.2 Uneasy balance for oil, natural gas and coal markets 86
2.1.3 Key challenges for secure and just clean energy transitions 88
2.2 WEO scenarios 91
2.2.1 Policies 92
2.2.2 Economic and demographic assumptions 93
2.2.3 Energy, critical mineral and carbon prices 95
2.2.4 Technology costs 99
3. Pathways for the energy mix 101
3.1 Introduction 103
3.2 Overview 104
3.3 Total final energy consumption 107
3.3.1 Industry 108
3.3.2 Transport 113
3.3.3 Buildings 118
3.4 Electricity 123
3.5 Fuels 130
3.5.1 Oil 130
3.5.2 Natural gas 135
3.5.3 Coal 140
3.5.4 Modern bioenergy 145
3.6 Key clean energy technology trends 147
4. Secure and people-centred energy transitions 155
4.1 Introduction 157
4.2 Environment and climate 158
4.2.1 Emissions trajectory and temperature outcomes 158
4.2.2 Methane abatement 161
4.2.3 Air quality 164
4.3 Secure energy transitions 166
4.3.1 Fuel security and trade 166
4.3.2 Electricity security 171
4.3.3 Clean energy supply chains and critical minerals 178
4.4 People-centred transitions 183
4.4.1 Energy access 183
4.4.2 Energy affordability 187
4.4.3 Energy employment 191
4.4.4 Behavioural change 193
4.5 Investment and finance needs 197
5. Regional insights 203
5.1 Introduction 205
5.2 United States 206
5.2.1 Key energy and emissions trends 206
5.2.2 How much have the US Inflation Reduction Act and other recent policies changed the picture for clean energy transitions? 208
5.3 Latin America and the Caribbean 211
5.3.1 Key energy and emissions trends 211
5.3.2 What role for Latin America and the Caribbean in maintaining traditional oil and gas security through energy transitions? 213
5.3.3 Do critical minerals open new avenues for Latin America and the Caribbean’s natural resources? 214
5.4 European Union 216
5.4.1 Key energy and emissions trends 216
5.4.2 Can the European Union deliver on its clean energy and critical materials targets? 218
5.4.3 What next for the natural gas balance in the European Union? 219
5.5 Africa 221
5.5.1 Key energy and emissions trends 221
5.5.2 Recharging progress towards universal energy access 223
5.5.3 What can be done to enhance energy investment in Africa? 224
5.6 Middle East 226
5.6.1 Key energy and emissions trends 226
5.6.2 Shifting fortunes for energy exports 228
5.6.3 How is the desalination sector changing in times of increasing water needs and the energy transition? 229
5.7 Eurasia 231
5.7.1 Key energy and emissions trends 231
5.7.2 What’s next for oil and gas exports from Eurasia? 233
5.8 China 236
5.8.1 Key energy and emissions trends 236
5.8.2 How soon will coal use peak in China? 238
5.9 India 241
5.9.1 Key energy and emissions trends 241
5.9.2 Impact of air conditioners on electricity demand in India 243
5.9.3 Will domestic solar PV module manufacturing keep pace with solar capacity growth in India? 244
5.10 Japan and Korea 246
5.10.1 Key energy and emissions trends 246
5.10.2 Challenges and opportunities of nuclear and offshore wind 248
5.10.3 What role can hydrogen play in the energy mix and how can the governments deploy it? 249
5.11 Southeast Asia 251
5.11.1 Key energy and emissions trends 251
5.11.2 How can international finance accelerate clean energy transitions in Southeast Asia? 253
5.11.3 How can regional integration help integrate more renewables? 254
Annexes
Annex A Tables for scenario projections 259
Annex B Design of the scenarios 295
Annex C Definitions 319
Annex D References 339
Annex E Inputs to the Global Energy and Climate Model 347
