국가전략정보포털

Title page

Contents

Introduction 7

Methodology 8

Addressing Fragility and Conflict in Financing for Development 9

Challenges and Opportunities for Decarbonization in FCS 11

Climate Risk and Resilience in FCS 14

Breakdown of Climate Change in FCV Settings 16

Drought and Near-Term Climate Change Projections 18

Discussion and Future Directions 24

References 27

Annex 1 28

FIGURE 1. Global FCS Footprint by FCS Category 2006-2023 7

FIGURE 2. Breakdown of IDA and LDC Designated Countries Listed on the FCS List Over Multiple Years, 2006-2023 10

FIGURE 3. Average Annual Per Capita CO₂ Emissions Across FCS Categories, 1950-2023 11

FIGURE 4. Average Total GHG Emissions in FCS Countries, 1950-2023 12

FIGURE 5. Fossil Fuel Subsidies Estimates for FCS and Non-FCS Countries: Total as Share of GDP (2023), Average per Capita (2023), and Average Total Transport Oil Subsidies (2010-2023) 12

FIGURE 6. Countries with NDCs Submitted to the UNFCCC Broken Down by FCS Category 13

FIGURE 7. Impacts of Climate-Related Disasters by FCS Category: (a) Average Number of Deaths (b) Average Total Economic Damage, 2008-2023 14

FIGURE 8. Displaced Persons Associated with Natural Hazards in FCS Countries, 2008-2023 15

FIGURE 9. Average Number of Internally Displaced People vs Total Number of Climate-Related Disasters by FCS Category, 2008-2023 15

FIGURE 10. Total Violent Conflict Fatalities in FCS Countries, 2016-2023 16

FIGURE 11. Average Change in Number of Conflict Events Between the Lean Season and Other Months Across FCS Categories, 2008-2023 17

FIGURE 12. FCS Countries Average Percentage of Total Crop Area that is Rainfed, 2016-2020 18

FIGURE 13. Average PDSI Probability Density Representations by FCS Category, 2006-2023 19

FIGURE 14. FCS and Non-FCS Countries Regional PDSI Averages, 2006-2023 20

FIGURE 15. Average Climate Water Deficit Probability Density Representations by FCS Category, 2006-2023 21

FIGURE 16. FCS Countries Projected Global Differences in Average Minimum Temperature for RCP Scenario 8.5, 2006-2040 22

FIGURE 17. Projected Difference in Average Minimum Temperature for RCP Scenario 8.5 by FCS Category and Region, 2006-2040 23

FIGURE 18. Average Precipitation Anomalies Against the Difference in Average Minimum Temperature for Projections under RCP Scenario 8.5 by FCS Category, 2006-2040 23

Annex Figures

FIGURE A.1. Classification Tree for Assigning Economies to the World Bank List of Fragile and Conflict-Affected Situations 28