Preface 3
Foreword 4
Acknowledgements 5
Abbreviations and acronyms 10
Executive summary 11

1. Towards the elimination of plastic pollution: mapping alternative pathways 13
 1.1. Context and objectives 14
 1.2. Overview of the methodological framework 15
 1.3. Main insights from the analysis 20
 References 36
 Notes 37

2. Business-as-usual is unsustainable 38
 2.1. Production of and demand for primary plastics would continue to grow 39
 2.2. Plastic waste would continue to grow, mainly driven by short-lived applications and growth in emerging economies 44
 2.3. In 2040, more than a hundred million tonnes of plastic waste would still be mismanaged 45
 2.4. Growing levels of plastics use and waste would amplify adverse consequences for
ecosystems, climate mitigation efforts and human health 47
 References 52
 Notes 52

3. Modelling policy packages to mitigate plastic pollution 53
 3.1. Introduction 54
 3.2. Policy scenarios to chart alternative paths to eliminating plastic pollution 55
 3.3. Overview of the modelling framework for the projections of plastic flows 60
 References 62
 Notes 62

4. Implications of policy scenarios with partial ambition 63
 4.1. Introduction 64
 4.2. In the absence of strong, common commitments for reduction, plastics use and waste generation is at best slowed compared to the Baseline 65
 4.3. The level and direction of policy ambition matters for waste treatment outcomes 67
 4.4. Significant plastic leakage remains in the scenarios with partial ambition 71
 Notes 74

5. Implications of policy scenarios with high ambition 75
 5.1. Introduction 76
 5.2. Ambitious integrated policies can largely decouple economic activity and plastics use 76
 5.3. Interventions throughout the plastics lifecycle in all countries are required to eliminate mismanaged plastic waste by 2040 80
 5.4. Each policy pillar is essential in reducing plastic waste mismanagement and overall
pollution 82
 5.5. Strategies to halt microplastic leakage will also be required 85
 5.6. The environmental benefits of global ambition by 2040 86
 References 91
 Notes 91

6. Comparison of costs across scenarios 92
 6.1. Introduction 93
 6.2. Policy packages that target all stages of the plastics lifecycle are more cost-effective at the macroeconomic level 93
 6.3. Non-OECD countries face higher investment needs to enhance waste management 96
 6.4. Co-ordinated approaches can limit the costs of action 102
 6.5. What would be the economic and environmental implications of slower action? 103
 References 106
 Notes 106

7. Putting the Global Ambition into context: Challenges and priorities 107
 7.1. Introduction 108
 7.2. Accelerate action to slow plastic flows and foster eco-design 108
 7.3. Support environmentally sound waste management in all regions 110
 7.4. Further research is required to better inform action on microplastic leakage and the need for remedial action 112
 7.5. Means of implementation and financing 113
 7.6. Considerations for future research 117
 References 119
 Notes 119

Annex A. Modelling framework 120
Annex B. Details on the policy scenarios 125