Title page

Contents

Overview 5

Recent Economic Developments 8

Projections of Gross Domestic Product and Its Components 9

Projections of the Labor Market 14

Projections of Inflation and Interest Rates 18

Projections of Income 20

Uncertainty About the Economic Outlook 21

Comparison With CBO's June 2024 Economic Projections 26

Comparison With Other Economic Projections 29

About This Document 35

Table 1. CBO's Economic Projections for Calendar Years 2025 to 2035 7

Table 2. Projected Growth of Real GDP and Its Components 10

Table 3. Key Inputs in CBO's Projections of Real Potential GDP 15

Table 4. CBO's Current and Previous Economic Projections for Calendar Years 2024 to 2034 26

Figure 1. Growth of Real GDP 6

Figure 2. Growth of Real Residential Investment 12

Figure 3. Average Annual Growth of Real Potential GDP and Its Components 16

Figure 4. Employment, Unemployment, and Wage Growth 17

Figure 5. Labor Force Participation 18

Figure 6. Inflation 19

Figure 7. Interest Rates 21

Figure 8. Uncertainty of CBO's Projections of the Growth of Real GDP 24

Figure 9. Uncertainty of CBO's Projections of Output, Unemployment, Inflation, and Interest Rates 25

Figure 10. Comparison of CBO's Economic Forecasts With Those of the Blue Chip Forecasters 30

Figure 11. Comparison of CBO's Economic Forecasts With Those in the Survey of Professional Forecasters 31

Figure 12. Comparison of CBO's Inflation Forecasts With Those in the Survey of Professional Forecasters 32

Figure 13. Comparison of CBO's Economic Forecasts With Those of the Federal Reserve 33