국회도서관 국가전략정보포털

Title page

Contents

KEY TAKEAWAYS 2

INTRODUCTION 5

WHY THIS MATTERS 6

THE NATURE OF INNOVATION INDUSTRIES AND COMPETITIVE POSITIONING 11

WHAT IS INNOVATION? 14

THE ASIAN TIGER PATH 15

CAN CHINA INNOVATE? 18

China Cannot Innovate 18

China Can Innovate 21

INNOVATION ANALYSIS 23

Empirical Data 26

Select Cases 41

Firm Analysis 43

Industry Analyses 43

Robotics 44

Chemicals 48

Nuclear Power 52

Semiconductors 54

Electric Vehicle and Battery Industries 57

Artificial Intelligence 59

Displays 61

Quantum Computing 62

Biopharmaceuticals 63

THE CONTRASTING WESTERN AND CHINESE ECONOMIC MODELS 65

China's Dream: Techno-Economic Leadership 65

American Neglect 68

Chinese and U.S. Economic Systems 70

Contrasting Innovation Policy Systems 74

The U.S. Innovation System 75

The Chinese Innovation System 79

Implications of the Chinese Innovation Model 91

America's Challenge: Ideological Divergence 93

Market Global Capitalism 93

Support Capitalism 96

Anticorporate Capitalism 97

Worker and Climate Capitalism 98

National Power Capitalism 100

A U.S. "10 S's" System 102

HOW CHINA MIGHT STALL 109

HOW THE UNITED STATES MIGHT NOT LOSE MORE 111

WHAT TO DO? 112

CONCLUSION 113

Scenario One: China as Innovation Leader 113

Scenario Two: Strategic Parity 114

Scenario Three: Japanification 115

ENDNOTES 116

Table 1. Hamilton Index industry leaders, 2020 7

Table 2. China's scores on select factors from the Global Innovation Index 41

Table 3. Summary of industry studies' results 44

Table 4. U.S. and Chinese economic systems 74

Figure 1. China's global market shares in advanced industries 6

Figure 2. Non-OECD change in global market shares (percentage-point difference, 1995-2020) 8

Figure 3. America's relative historical performance in Hamilton Index industries (LQ trends) 10

Figure 4. Hypothetical firm with fixed costs 40 times greater than marginal costs 11

Figure 5. Hamilton industry shares of the global economy 12

Figure 6. Number of researchers in China relative to number in the United States 26

Figure 7. China's researchers in the business sector as a share of total researchers, relative to the United States 27

Figure 8. China's gross domestic expenditure on R&D by sector, relative to the United States 28

Figure 9. R&D intensity in China by performing sector relative to the United States 29

Figure 10. Number of global top R&D investment firms in China relative to the United States 30

Figure 11. Number of science and technical articles published in China relative to the United States 31

Figure 12. Share of highly cited researchers in China relative to the United States 32

Figure 13. Number of top 100 universities in China relative to the United States 33

Figure 14. Gross VC investment in China relative to the United States 34

Figure 15. Number of PCT patent applications for China relative to the United States 35

Figure 16. Share of patent grants awarded to Chinese firms by USPTO 36

Figure 17. Value of IP licensing receipts by China relative to the United States 37

Figure 18. Number of WIPO global innovation clusters in China relative to the United States 38

Figure 19. Unicorns in the United States and China as a share of total unicorns in 2024 39

Figure 20. Share of supercomputers in the top 500 in China and the United States in 2024 39

Figure 21. Number of top 100 innovators in China relative to the United States 40

Figure 22. U.S. and Chinese firms' global market shares in machinery and equipment 51

Figure 23. The U.S. and Chinese innovation systems 79

Figure 24. Private investment as a share of GDP in China and the United States 105