목차
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS 6
LIST OF FIGURES 7
LIST OF TABLES 7
LIST OF BOXES 7
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 8
1. INTRODUCTION 9
2. US EXTERNAL IMBALANCES: THE GRAPES OF WRATH 10
3. THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION’S ANNOUNCED AND EXPECTED TARIFFS 16
4. SCENARIOS OF TRUMP-INDUCED GLOBAL TRADE FRAGMENTATION 20
4.1. Quantitative evaluation 23
4.2. Results 23
5. POLICY OPTIONS AND CHALLENGES FOR THE EU AND ECB 27
5.1. Tariffs and domestic prices: a monetary policy challenge 27
5.2. International economic policy coordination and exchange rate policy in Europe 28
5.3. Global financial breakdown and a new global role for the ECB 29
6. CONCLUSION 31
REFERENCES 32
