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ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook 2025

(2025년 아세안+3 지역경제전망)

ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) 2025-04-15

□ 아세안+3 거시경제조사기구(AMRO, ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office)는 15일(싱가포르 현지시간), 「2025년 지역경제전망(AREO, ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook)」 보고서를 발표함

□ AMRO는 아세안+3 지역은 견고한 국내 소비·투자와 함께, 반도체·관광 산업 등 대외수요 개선에 힘입어 2025년 4.2%, 2026년 4.1% 성장하며 4%대의 안정적 성장세를 지속할 것으로 전망함
- 한국의 경우 2025년 1.6%, 2026년 1.9% 성장을 예상함
- 한편, 2025년 역내 인플레이션은 1.7%로 전망했으며, 한국도 이와 유사한 1.9% 상승을 예상함

□ 다만 AMRO는 향후 하방위험이 우세한 상황이라고 언급하면서, 특히 미국의 보호무역 정책 강화는 글로벌 무역 경로를 통해 역내 성장을 둔화시킬 수 있다고 지적함
- 그 외 글로벌 금융여건의 긴축, 주요 경제권 성장둔화, 원자재 가격 급등을 단기 하방요인으로 꼽았으며, 장기적으로는 인구 고령화 및 기후변화, 기술적 충격 등을 지목함

ㅇ 향후 정책 방향과 관련하여, 재정정책은 단기적인 경기 대응 능력을 유지하면서도, 중장기적으로는 재정 완충여력을 확보하는데도 노력할 필요가 있음을 지적함
ㅇ 통화정책 관련해서는 국가별 여건에 따라 조정 폭과 시기를 신중하게 결정하되, 금융·대외안정성도 고려하여야 한다고 강조함

[출처] 아세안+3 거시경제조사기구(AMRO) 2025년 지역경제전망(AREO) 보고서 발표 (2025.04.15.) / 기획재정부 보도자료

Foreword
Acknowledgments
Abbreviations

Chapter 1. Macroeconomic Prospects and Challenges 1
Highlights 22
I. Economic Developments in 2024: Solid Growth Despite Rising Uncertainties 3
   Robust Domestic Demand Anchored Growth 6
   External Sector Recovery Strengthened Growth Momentum 4
   Inflation Normalized from Post-Pandemic Surge 10
   Financial Conditions Continued to Ease 11
   External Position Remained Resilient 13
II. Outlook for ASEAN+3: Steady Growth amid Heightened Uncertainties 15
   Key Factors Shaping Near-Term Outlook 20
III.Risks to the Outlook: Tilted to the Downside 25
IV.Policy Considerations: Preparing for a Highly Uncertain Environment 30
   Fiscal Policy 31
   Monetary Policy 35
Appendix 37
References 39

Chapter 2. Inflation in ASEAN+3: Changing Dynamics and Policy Implications 40
Highlights 41
I. Introduction 42
II. Contextualizing the Recent ASEAN+3 Inflation Experience 43
   Lower and More Short-Lived Inflation 43
   Relatively Moderate Volatility Despite Wider Sectoral Variability 45
   Well-Anchored Inflation Expectations 50
   Evolving Dynamics Between Goods and Services Inflation 51
III.Disentangling the Underlying Shifts in Inflation Dynamics 53
   Rising Role of Supply Factors in Driving Inflation 53
   Interplay of Global and Domestic Forces in Shaping Inflation 61
IV.Policy Experience and Lessons Learnt 69
   Policy Responses by ASEAN+3 Economies 69
       Monetary Tightening to Stem Demand Pressures 69
       Fiscal Support to Minimize Inflation Passthrough 70
       Supply Management to Stabilize Domestic Prices 71
   Policy Lessons Learnt to Safeguard Price Stability 71
Annex 1. Methodology: Supply and Demand Decomposition 77
Annex 2. Methodology: Global and Domestic Factors 78
References 79

Chapter 3. Long-term Growth of ASEAN+3: Prospects and Policies 81
Highlights 82
I. Introduction 83
II. Long-term Trend Growth in ASEAN+3 84
   Understanding the Past 85
   Exploring the Future 91
III.Productivity Growth and Structural Change in ASEAN+3 99
   Analyzing Structural Change in ASEAN+3: The Frameworks 101
       Industrialization Stalling in Some Economies 103
       Wide Productivity Gaps Against the Frontier 105
       Services Development Still Lagging 105
IV.Policy Considerations and the Way Forward 112
   Future Growth Pathways for ASEAN+3: Five Policy Considerations 118
       1: Upgrading Manufacturing Capabilities 119
       2: Prioritizing High Skills and Quality Services 120
       3: Closing Investment Gaps 121
       4: Boosting Innovation and Leveraging on Technology 122
       5: Strengthening State Capacity 124
References 132
Online Annexes
   Annex 1. Growth Accounting Framework
   Annex 2. ASEAN+3 Growth Potential Trends and Projections, by Economy
   Annex 3. Decomposition of Labor Productivity Gains
   Annex 4. Classification of Economies by Stage of Structural Change
   Annex 5. Classification of Economies by Phase of Industrialization
   Annex 6. Labor Productivity Distance to the Global Frontier
   Annex 7. Progress of Structural Change Relative to Peers

Annex. Developments in ASEAN+3 Economies 139
   Brunei Darussalam 140
   Cambodia 143
   China 146
   Hong Kong, China 149
   Indonesia 152
   Japan 155
   Korea 158
   Lao PDR 161
   Malaysia 164
   Myanmar 167
   The Philippines 170
   Singapore 173
   Thailand 176
   Vietnam 179