목차
Title page 1
Contents 4
About the authors 6
1. How climate action is reshaping global public policy: an introduction 11
2. Green geopolitical revolution: navigating the geopolitics of the energy transition 17
2.1. Introduction 17
2.2. Green upheaval: the new geopolitics of energy 19
2.3. The new energy order: how governments will transform energy markets 21
2.4. The age of energy insecurity: how the fight for resources is upending geopolitics 24
2.5. Green peace: the fight against climate change can overcome geopolitical discord 26
References 29
3. The climate trilemma 30
3.1. Introduction 30
3.2. Achieving climate goals 30
3.3. Fiscal sustainability 34
3.4. Political constraints 41
3.5. Towards enhanced global action 43
3.6. Conclusion 50
References 51
4. Industrial policy for competitiveness in the energy transition 53
4.1. Introduction 53
4.2. How China's industrial policy built competitiveness in solar manufacturing 54
4.3. Industrial policy for competitiveness 59
4.4. The economic rationale for industrial policy for competitiveness 61
4.5. Institutions and ideology around industrial policy 63
4.6. Case study: wind manufacturing 70
4.7. Conclusion 73
References 73
5. From periphery to core: the climate and energy journey of European foreign policy 75
5.1. Introduction 75
5.2. Origins: the EU as a climate leader at the margins of foreign policy 77
5.3. Enlightenment: climate and energy move towards the core 78
5.4. Staying the course: consolidating and expanding the green deal in European foreign policy 83
5.5. Looking ahead 89
References 94
6. Climate action: A view from the Global South 96
6.1. Introduction 96
6.2. Coping with climate change in the Global South 97
6.3. Climate change and trade policies 104
6.4. Conclusion 107
References 109
7. Unblocking the flow of capital from rich to developing countries for climate change mitigation 111
7.1. Introduction and summary 111
7.2. The climate finance background 118
7.3. The domestic investment gap 119
7.4. Cost of capital: the obstacle to private investment flows 121
7.5. The cost of hedging foreign exchange and macro risks 123
7.6. The structural nature of the ex-post foreign exchange risk premium 124
7.7. Conclusion 130
References 131
8. Promoting China-Europe Cooperation on Climate Change 133
8.1. Introduction 133
8.2. Substantial gaps remain in tackling climate change 134
8.3. China's net-zero roadmap 135
8.4. The cleantech overcapacity debate 138
8.5. Technological competitiveness 140
8.6. China-Europe climate-finance cooperation 141
8.7. Better use of CBAM revenue 143
References 144
9. The supply side of the green transition: economy of scale, competition and international trade 145
9.1. Achieving the green transition 145
9.2. Two different approaches to reduce the green premium 146
9.3. Focus on the supply-side approach is growing 148
9.4. Driving China's green premium down: economies of scale 151
9.5. Digitalisation is amplifying economies of scale 155
9.6. Diseconomies of scale for land use: large countries could do better 156
9.7. Transforming the energy industry landscape and international trade 158
9.8. Economies of scale: the cornerstone of China's contribution to the global green transition 161
References 162
10. Charting a green-energy transformation in Africa 165
10.1. Introduction 165
10.2. Lessons from Morocco's energy transition experience 167
10.3. Case studies in sub-Saharan Africa 179
10.4. Funding is the missing link 187
10.5. Recommendations 190
10.6. Conclusion 195
References 196
11. Global warming is worsened by the north-south divide 199
11.1. Introduction 199
11.2. Net-zero by 2050 200
11.3. Global North leadership 203
11.4. Climate finance 205
11.5. Carbon and offset markets 209
11.6. Conclusion 212
References 212
Tables 123
7. Unblocking the flow of capital from rich to developing countries for climate change mitigation 123
Table 1. Comparative project/sector risks or micro risks (using 2021 annual data) between developed countries and industrialising developing countries 123
Table 2. Annual ex-post excess risk premium for hedging across the last 25 years and when hedging costs are above the trailing three-year average,... 125
8. Promoting China-Europe Cooperation on Climate Change 135
Table 1. Investment gap by sector 135
10. Charting a green-energy transformation in Africa 174
Table 1. Moroccan imports of components intrinsic to PV panels 174
Figures 31
3. The climate trilemma 31
Figure 1. Daily global temperature 31
Figure 2. Global emissions projections and pathways for warming targets 33
Figure 3. CO₂ emissions per capita under BAU and NDC 34
Figure 4. Increase in public debt with expanded expenditure-based climate policies to achieve net zero emissions (% of GDP) 37
Figure 5. Fiscal revenue impact of a carbon pricing scheme (% of 2030 GDP) 40
Figure 6. Projected contributions to global carbon emissions in 2030 with unchanged policies, by major emitter 45
Figure 7. Net fiscal impact of global climate mitigation packages based on carbon pricing and climate spending 49
4. Industrial policy for competitiveness in the energy transition 60
Figure 1. Different forms of industrial policy 60
6. Climate action: A view from the Global South 99
Figure 1. More-exposed countries have lower adaptive capacity 99
Figure 2. Adaptive capacity and fiscal space 101
8. Promoting China-Europe Cooperation on Climate Change 137
Figure 1. Primary energy demand by fuel in China (in EJ-left and in %-right) 137
Figure 2. Market share of different battery technologies, 2023-2030 140
Figure 3. China-Europe climate-finance collaboration 143
9. The supply side of the green transition: economy of scale, competition and international trade 147
Figure 1. Green premium = clean energy costs - fossil energy costs 147
Figure 2. Ratio of China's installed clean-energy capacity to the EU's vs. ratio of China's carbon price to that in the EU: moving in opposite directions over the past decade 150
Figure 3. The green premium in Chinese power generation has turned negative 151
Figure 4. Learning curve of solar modules 152
Figure 5. Learning curve of lithium-ion batteries 152
Figure 6. Cost composition of different power generation technologies 153
Figure 7. Renewable energy equipment manufacturing industry is technology-intensive 153
Figure 8. Proportion of costs related to digital technologies in NEVs and ICVs in 2021 156
Figure 9. Global growth rate of digital energy consumption and renewable energy production 156
Figure 10. Realising green transformation requires a large amount of land 157
Figure 11. China is relatively rich in unutilised land 157
10. Charting a green-energy transformation in Africa 169
Figure 1. Share of renewable energy in total electricity generation, Morocco, GWh 169
Figure 2. Organisation of the electricity sector in Morocco 171
Figure 3. Access to electricity (% of population) 181
Figure 4. Electricity generation, Kenya, 2023 184
