목차
Title page 1
Contents 1
Abstract 2
1. Introduction 5
2. Background and Context 10
3. Experimental Design 11
3.1. Treatment 11
3.2. Sampling Frame 14
3.3. Timeline 15
3.4. Assignment to Treatment 16
3.5. Data 18
4. Empirical Strategy 20
5. Results 22
5.1. Program Impacts on Skills 22
5.2. Program Impacts on Income Generation 24
5.3. Impacts on Income Volatility 30
5.4. Program Impacts on Income Use 31
5.5. Quantifying Spillovers 35
6. Discussion and Conclusion 38
References 40
Appendix A. Variable definitions 44
Appendix B. Supporting Figures and Tables 50
Appendix C. SMS LASSO and Photobook Weights 61
Appendix D. Robustness 64
Tables 23
Table 1. ITT Effects: Skills 23
Table 2. ITT Effects on Business Outcomes: Extensive Margin 25
Table 3. ITT Effects on Business Outcomes: Intensive Margin 27
Table 4. ITT Effects on Employment Outcomes 29
Table 5. ITT Effects on Savings and Re-Investments Outcomes 32
Table 6. ITT Effects on Household Outcomes 34
Table 7. Spillover Effects on Business Outcomes at Endline 36
Figures 31
Figure 1. Reactions to COVID-19 Lockdown by Treatment Group 31
Figure 2. SMS Bi-weekly Average Reported Sales 37
Appendix Tables 51
Table A1. Balance Table 51
Table A2. Attrition 52
Table A3. Balance Table - SMS 53
Table A4. SMS Attrition 54
Table A5. Adjusted Treatment Effects on Business Outcomes Extensive Margin 55
Table A6. Adjusted Treatment Effects on Business Outcomes: Intensive Margin 56
Table A7. Adjusted Treatment Effects on Re-Investments Outcomes 57
Table A8. Adjusted Treatment Effects: Skills 58
Table A9. Adjusted Treatment Effects on Household Outcomes 59
Table A10. Lasso Selected Variables - OLS 62
Table A11. Estimated Coefficients for Photo books Weights 63
Table A12. Treatment Effects on Business Outcomes Extensive Margin - Other Specifications 65
Table A13. Treatment Effects on Business Outcomes Intensive Margin - Other Specifications 66
Table A14. Treatment Effects on Possible Mechanisms I - Other Specifications 67
Table A15. Treatment Effects on Possible Mechanisms II - Other Specifications 68
Table A16. Treatment Effects on Re-Investments - Other Specifications 69
Table A17. Treatment Effects on Household Outcomes - Other Specifications 70
Appendix Figures 50
Figure A1. Training Module Content 50
Figure A2. Project Timeline 50
Figure A3. Reactions to COVID-19 Lockdown by Treatment Group (Weighted Effects) 60
