목차
Title page 1
Contents 3
Acknowledgements 4
Foreword by the WTO Director-General 5
Introduction 7
A. Putting Trade for Peace in context 11
1. Promoting Peace and Stability through Trade: WTO accession of fragile and conflict-affected states 13
Abstract 13
1. Introduction 14
2. Fragility and conflict issues in the WTO context 14
3. FCS and WTO accession 15
4. Trade for Peace Programme 21
5. Conclusion 22
Bibliography 23
2. Measuring Peace 25
Abstract 25
1. Introduction 26
2. Measuring Negative Peace: the Global Peace Index 26
3. The Positive Peace framework 29
4. The economic value of peace: calculating the cost of violence 32
5. The peace-ecological crises nexus 34
6. Conclusion 36
Bibliography 38
3. Determinants and Benefits of WTO Membership: Do peace indicators reveal linkages between WTO and peace? 39
Abstract 39
1. Introduction 40
2. WTO and peace 40
3. Empirical analysis 41
4. Case study: effect of WTO accession on peace 44
5. Conclusion 46
Bibliography 47
Appendix 1: Peace Index 48
Appendix 2: Empirical specification and results 50
4. Sustaining Peace through Trade: New approaches in a splintering world 57
Abstract 57
1. Introduction 58
2. New approaches are required to prevent and end rising conflict and violence 58
3. Violent conflict blocks development, while under development can lead to violent conflict 60
4. The role of economic development and trade in sustaining peace 60
5. The role of business in sustaining peace 62
6. Borderlands as critical areas for sustaining peace 63
7. Policy implications: A holistic approach to the role of trade in sustaining peace 65
8. Conclusion 66
Bibliography 67
5. Can Trade Aid in Bringing Peace? 69
Abstract 69
1. Early thinking on trade and peace linkages 70
2. The liberal international order 70
3. The multilateral trading system 71
4. Did the world trading system bring peace? 72
5. The European peace project 72
6. The road to a sustained peace through the WTO accession process 73
7. The African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) 73
8. Peace in the Middle East 73
9. Peace between geostrategic rivals 74
10. Conclusion 74
Bibliography 75
B. Operationalizing Trade for Peace 77
6. Macroeconomic Stability as a Precondition for Peace 79
Abstract 79
1. What is macro-stability? 80
2. What policy space does a country have to preserve macro-stability? 84
3. How to achieve macro-stability for peace? 88
Bibliography 89
7. The IMF Strategy for Fragile and Conflict-affected States 91
Abstract 91
1. A worsening global fragility and conflict landscape 92
2. The implications of fragility and conflict are macro-critical 92
3. The IMF Strategy for Fragile and Conflict-affected States 95
4. Conclusion 99
Bibliography 101
8. Harnessing Trade for Peace: Insights from Somalia's WTO accession process 103
Abstract 103
1. Introduction 104
2. Trade as a peace enhancer or conflict inciter, or both? 105
3. "Peace responsiveness" as an approach to integrate peacebuilding into WTO accession processes 107
4. Conclusion 111
Bibliography 112
9. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and the Search for Continental Peace and Security: An exploration 115
Abstract 115
1. Introduction 116
2. Rationale behind the AfCFTA and its implications for Africa's economic prospects 116
3. The state of peace and security in Africa 119
4. Trade and peace: What can the AfCFTA contribute to Africa's peace effort? 121
5. Conclusion 123
Bibliography 124
10. Does the Generalized System of Preferences Promote Peace in Fragile Economies? 127
Abstract 127
1. Introduction 128
2. Fragile economies and trade preferences 128
3. GSPs, trade, and intra-state conflict 130
4. Empirical analysis 133
5. Conclusion 135
Bibliography 136
Appendix A 138
Appendix B 151
11. Trade in Peace: The Liberia experience 157
Abstract 157
1. Introduction 158
2. Trade in Liberia's conflict: Extractive industries' role in Liberia's civil war 158
3. The role of trade in peacebuilding in Liberia 158
4. Path to recovery: Liberia's development agenda for transformation (AfT) 159
5. Rebranding post-war Liberia through integration in various international and regional trade agreements 159
6. Trade in peace, the case of rebranding Liberia through WTO accession 161
7. Conclusion 162
8. Key challenges 163
9. Recommendations 163
Bibliography 164
12. Trade for Peace in South Sudan 165
Abstract 165
1. Introduction 166
2. South Sudan: Country context 166
3. Costs of conflict 167
4. Trade and trade regime 168
5. The nexus between trade and conflict 170
6. Changed gender roles through conflict 170
7. Climate change exacerbates the conflict 171
8. How trade can enhance chances for peace and prosperity 171
9. Regional and global integration for peace 172
10. Principles for a trade-for-peace policy 173
Bibliography 175
C. Intersections between Trade for Peace and other policy areas 177
13. Small Businesses in Fragility: From survival to growth 179
Abstract 179
1. Introduction 180
2. The vicious cycle of fragility 180
3. Fragility from a business perspective 183
4. More competitive, less fragile 186
5. Addressing fragility requires a two-pronged approach 188
Bibliography 189
14. Inclusive Business Models as a Driver of Sustainable Peace 191
Abstract 191
1. Introduction 192
2. The genesis of markets 192
3. The impact of business models on sustaining peace 193
4. Commerce as a precondition of peace: The Unifrutti case 193
5. Lessons from Unifrutti's transformational business partnership model 195
6. Vision and values as the cornerstone of inclusive business 195
7. Reciprocity and solidarity: Keys to inclusivity 196
8. Inclusive business models lead to the meaningful participation of the poor in the value chain: Fair distribution of value is key 197
9. Building up social capital is the most effective means of mitigating security risks 197
10. The role of foreign direct investment (FDI) and trade 197
Bibliography 199
15. Facilitating Trade in Fragile and Conflict-affected States: The gender dimension 201
Abstract 201
1. Introduction 202
2. Gender and trade in conflict areas 202
3. Conflict affects entrepreneurship and labour markets 203
4. Implications for small, informal firms 205
5. Scaling good practices: Trade facilitation measures in Africa 207
6. Promising innovations and areas for further investigation 210
7. Policy interventions: Mainstreaming gender 212
8. The aid ecosystem 213
9. Conclusion 215
Bibliography 216
16. Principles for Trade and Investment to Contribute to Peace and Stability 219
Abstract 219
1. Introduction 220
2. Evidence, principles, and measures 220
3. Investment and peace 224
4. The role of the G20 and other multilateral forums 227
5. Interplay between trade and investment 228
6. Conclusion 228
Bibliography 229
Tables 16
Table 1.1. World Bank's 2025 List of Fragile and Conflicted-affected Situations - WTO members and observers 16
Table 1.2. Completed and ongoing accessions, and fragile and conflict-affected states (FCS) 17
Table 1.3. Selected information regarding the accession process 20
Table 3.1. Data descriptions and sources 42
Table 3.2. Pairwise-correlation between the WTO and the Global Peace Index 44
Table 3.3. Pairwise-correlation between the WTO and the Positive Peace Index 44
Table 3.4. Average score and change rate of the Global Peace Index by WTO membership type 45
Table 3.5. Average score and change rate of the Positive Peace Index by WTO membership type 45
Table 13.1. Defining and measuring fragility 181
Figures 20
Figure 1.1. The WTO accession process 20
Figure 2.1. Three domains of peacefulness and Global Peace Index indicators 27
Figure 2.2. Peacefulness since 2008 28
Figure 2.3. Peacefulness by domain (indexed trend) 28
Figure 2.4. Changes in indicator scores, 2008-2024 29
Figure 2.5. Positive Peace domains 29
Figure 2.6. Eight Pillars of Positive Peace 30
Figure 2.7. Systems and the nations 32
Figure 2.8. Cumulative improvement in Positive Peace (2014-2022) 33
Figure 2.9. Changes in the Attitudes, Institutions and Structures of Positive Peace, 2013-2022 33
Figure 2.10. Changes in the Pillars of Peace, 2013-2022 34
Figure 3.1. Positive Peace Index scores (2016-2020) for China and Viet Nam 46
Figure 3.2. Positive Peace Index scores (2016-2020) for Lao PDR and Tajikistan 46
Figure 4.1. Number of state-based conflicts by region, 1946-2023 59
Figure 6.1. The role of trade in macro-stability and peace 83
Figure 6.2. Macro-policy space matrix 85
Figure 6.3. Policy space assessment 87
Figure 7.1. Per capita real GDP growth in fragile and conflict-affected states (FCS) (Per cent, change from January 2022 forecast) 93
Figure 7.2. Per capita incomes in fragile and conflict-affected states (FCS), 2019-2025 (Index: 2019=100) 93
Figure 7.3. Consumer Price Index inflation projections in fragile and conflict-affected states (FCS), 2023, 2024 and 2025 (in per cent) 94
Figure 7.4. Debt distress in fragile and conflict-affected states (FCS), 2014-2023 (Share of low-income FCS with debt sustainability assessments (DSAs), in per cent) 94
Figure 7.5. The nexus between inclusive growth, macroeconomic stability and peace 95
Figure 7.6. Engagement principles of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Fragile and Conflict-affected States (FCS) Strategy 96
Figure 7.7. Key measures of the IMF Strategy for Fragile and Conflict-affected States 98
Figure 9.1. Architecture of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) 117
Figure 9.2. Changes in intra-African trade with African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) implementation compared to baseline (i.e. without AfCFTA) by 2045 117
Figure 9.3. Strategic minerals (African shares and projected demand) 118
Figure 9.4. Sectoral distribution of intra-African trade gains from AfCFTA, by country by 2045 118
Figure 9.5. Impact of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) on extreme poverty, by 2045 119
Figure 10.1. An illustration of the effect of exports under GSPs or NRTPs on intra-state conflict 132
Figure 12.1. Location of violent events in South Sudan 167
Figure 12.2. Current state-of-play in the accession of South Sudan to the WTO (progress shaded in green) 169
Figure 13.1. Countries on the World Bank's list of fragile and conflict-affected situations, 2006-2024 181
Figure 13.2. Correlation between the number of exporters and the Fragile States Index (FSI) 182
Figure 13.3. Correlation between the entry and exit rates of exporters and the Fragile States Index (FSI) 183
Figure 13.4. International Trade Centre (ITC) Fragility Exposure Index 184
Figure 13.5. Firms experiencing high fragility, according to region (Share of respondents, in per cent) 185
Figure 13.6. Firms experiencing high fragility, according to the firm's characteristics (Share of respondents, in per cent) 186
Figure 13.7. Competitiveness is associated with lower experienced fragility 187
Figure 13.8. Competitiveness is not a silver bullet 188
Figure 13.9. A two-pronged approach to support small business 189
Figure 16.1. The probability of military conflict and trade openness over time (1870-2000) 220
Figure 16.2. Cross-strait trade (US dollars, millions) 221
Figure 16.3. Trade, geographic distance, and the probability of military conflict 222
Figure 16.4. Foreign direct investment flows to fragile and conflict-affected states (2008-2014) 225
Figure 16.5. Distribution of foreign direct investment across sectors (FCS vs non-FCS, 2008-2014) 225
Figure 16.6. "Growth clocks": Growth of sectors after conflict has ceased (years vs percentage) 226
Boxes 27
Box 2.1. Trends according to the Global Peace Indicators 2024 27
Box 2.2. Statistics on the cost of violence from the Global Peace Index 2024 35
Box 2.3. Findings of the Ecological Threat Report 2023 36
Box 4.1. Sustaining peace 59
Box 4.2. Defining resilience 61
Box 4.3. A conceptual framework for social cohesion 61
Box 4.4. Heightened human rights due diligence and sustainable development goals (SDG) impact standards to support business for peace 62
Box 4.5. United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Africa Borderlands Centre 64
Box 13.1. Small Business in Fragility Survey 184
Box 15.1. Distributional impacts of trade: AfCFTA and poverty impacts 203
Box 15.2. The Great Lakes Trade Facilitation Project (GLTFP) 208
Box 15.3. The impact of one-stop border posts in Uganda and Kenya 209
Box 15.4. Entrepreneurship and job creation: Gender-sensitive AfCFTA implementation 214
Box 16.1. Summary of 12 principles to guide peace-oriented trade and investment strategies 222
Appendix Tables 48
3. Determinants and Benefits of WTO Membership: Do peace indicators reveal linkages between WTO and peace? 48
Table A1. Global Peace Index (GPI) and GPI sub-indicators 48
Table A2. Positive Peace Index (PPI) indicators 49
Table A3. Economies which acceded to the WTO between 1996 and 2022 49
Table A4. Empirical specification and variables 50
Table A5. Impact of Global Peace Index indicators on WTO membership (WTO Equation I) 51
Table A6. Impact of Positive Peace Index indicators on WTO membership (WTO Equation II) 52
Table A7. Impact of WTO membership on Global Peace Index (GPI) (Peace Equation I) 53
Table A8. Impact of WTO membership on Positive Peace Index (PPI) (Peace Equation II) 54
Table A9. Impact of WTO duration of membership on the Positive Peace Index (Peace Equation III) 55
Table A10. Number of economies and time period used in each estimation 56
10. Does the Generalized System of Preferences Promote Peace in Fragile Economies? 138
Table A.1. List of economies in fragile and conflict-affected situations (FCS) 138
Table A.2. List of preferential trade agreements 141
Table A.3. Economies in fragile and conflict affected situations (FCS) in the EU and US GSP schemes 142
Table A.4. First two export destinations of fragile and conflict-affected states (FCS), 2021 145
Table A.5. Share of exports to NRTP providers, NRTP utilization rate, and number of conflicts 147
Table A.6. Major type of exporting products 149
Table B.1. Baseline results 151
Table B.2. Non-linear estimation results 152
Table B.3. Difference between subsamples that are (not) highly dependent from GSP providers 153
Table B.4. The effect of Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) coverage ratio 154
Table B.5. The effect of Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) utilization rate 154
Table B.6. Product heterogeneity 155
