목차
Title page 1
Contents 3
Acknowledgements 4
Abbreviations 5
Foreword 6
Executive summary 8
1. Introduction 13
2. Why is AI a trade issue? 15
(a) What is artificial intelligence (AI) and what makes it unique? 16
(i) AI is a general-purpose technology with wide current and potential applications 17
(ii) AI feeds on large datasetsand data regulations play a pivotal role in this 18
(iii) AI's functions can evolve rapidly, leading to dynamic shifts in its capabilities and autonomy 19
(iv) AI's inherent complexity and opacity and its potential failures and biases create challenges for regulators 19
(b) How will AI affect international trade? 20
(i) AI holds the potential to significantly reduce trade costs 20
(ii) The most significant trade impact of AI will be on trade in services 25
(iii) The emergence of AI will increase demand and trade in AI-related products 26
(iv) AI can reshape economies' comparative advantages 30
(v) Projection of the impact of AI on trade 31
3. The policies of AI and trade 37
(a) AI and trade: key policy considerations 38
(i) Addressing the growing AI divide 38
(ii) Preventing further digital trade barriers 41
(iii) Ensuring the trustworthiness of AI without hindering trade 44
(iv) How AI is shaped by and may reshape IP 46
(b) The global race to promote and regulate AI and the risk of fragmentation 48
(i) Domestic initiatives 48
(ii) Bilateral and regional cooperation initiatives to address AI 55
(iii) Regional trade agreements and digital economy agreements 56
(iv) International initiatives to address the challenges raised by AI 58
4. What role for the WTO? 67
(a) Promoting global convergence 68
(i) Promoting transparency 68
(ii) Promoting dialogue and exchange of good practices 69
(iii) Promoting regulatory harmonization and coherence through international standards, mutual recognition and equivalence 70
(iv) Providing voluntary committee guidance 71
(v) A global forum for negotiating new rules 71
(b) Facilitating trade in AI-related goods and services for AI growth and development 72
(i) Obligations and specific commitments on trade in services 72
(ii) Customs duties on ICT equipment and electronic transmissions 75
(iii) Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) Agreement 77
(iv) Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS Agreement) 77
(v) Technology transfer in WTO agreements 78
(vi) Agreement on Government Procurement (GPA) 79
(c) Minimizing negative international spillovers 79
(d) Helping to address and prevent trade tensions and frictions 81
(e) Promoting inclusiveness through special and differential treatment and technical assistance 82
(f) Scholars' views on the possible implications of AI for international trade rules 84
5. Conclusion 91
Annex 1. Key AI-related terms 95
Annex 2. Technical Appendix on the simulation scenarios 96
Annex 3. Key Policy and Standard-Related International Initiatives in the Area of AI 100
Annex 4. Survey of Academics 106
Bibliography 107
Opinion piece 27
Richard Baldwin - AI means that services will be the future of trade 27
James Manyika - Harnessing technology to advance shared prosperity 39
Shin-yi Peng - AI: Amplifying the digital trade issues 43
Eduardo Paranhos - Navigating AI regulation: balancing innovation, risks and regulatory defragmentation 47
Daniel Trefler - Building global chains of trust 83
Tables 32
Table 2.1. Summary of scenarios 32
Figures 16
Figure 2.1. A brief history of AI 16
Figure 2.2. Domains of notable AI systems 17
Figure 2.3. How AI can enhance supply chain management 21
Figure 2.4. AI can complement and enhance productivity in some occupations 25
Figure 2.5. The AI value chain 29
Figure 2.6. Concentration of the AI chip supply chain 30
Figure 2.7. Cumulative trade cost reductions (by importer) and productivity improvements in global synergy and tech divergence scenarios 33
Figure 2.8. Cumulative global real trade growth rate (2023-40) 34
Figure 2.9. Cumulative regional real export growth rate (2023-40) (Difference to baseline, percentage points) 34
Figure 2.10. Cumulative sectoral real exports growth rate (2023-40) 35
Figure 2.11. Cumulative real trade growth (2023-40) in the optimistic global synergy scenario 36
Figure 3.1. AI preparedness is higher in advanced economies 38
Figure 3.2. Number of AI patent filings by geographic regions, 2013-22 40
Figure 3.3. Affiliation of publication research teams, 1950-2022 41
Figure 3.4. Number of AI policy initiatives by region (2024) 49
Figure 3.5. Number of AI policy initiatives by level of development (2024) 49
Figure 3.6. Data localization is growing and becoming more restrictive 53
Figure 3.7. The depth of digital trade provisions included in RTAs varies significantly 57
Figure 3.8. Key international policy initiatives in the area of AI 60
Figure 4.1. Proportion of GATS schedules with specific commitments in modes 1 (cross-border supply) and 3 (commercial presence) in selected sectors 73
Figure 4.2. Services trade restrictiveness in selected sectors 74
Figure 4.3. Services trade restrictiveness by mode of supply 74
Figure 4.4. Tariffs on ICT products by non-ITA participants (2023) 77
Boxes 18
Box 2.1. The environmental impacts of AI 18
Box 2.2. Case study: Harnessing AI for enhanced trade facilitation and border control at Dubai Customs 22
Box 2.3. Case study: Benefits and challenges to the use of AI for express delivery carriers 23
Box 2.4. Case study: Using AI to improve supply chain visibility and traceability 24
Box 2.5. How will AI impact jobs? 28
Box 3.1. AI and consumer protection 42
Box 3.2. AI, cybersecurity and technical barriers to trade (TBT) 45
Box 3.3. Domestic standards on AI 50
Box 3.4. Case study: Singapore's approach to AI 51
Box 3.5. The challenge of navigating AI regulations: The case of Canvass AI 52
Box 4.1. AI and customs valuation 76
Box 4.2. The practice of specific trade concerns 81
Box 4.3. TBT, AI, the Internet of Things and robotics 82
Box 4.4. Classification of some digital products: a long-debated issue in the WTO 86
Annex Tables 99
Table A.1. Abbreviations 99
Annex Figures 97
Figure A.1. Cumulative trade cost ad valorem equivalents averaged by importers (2017-40) 97
Figure A.2. Cumulative global GDP growth rate (2023-40) 98
