국회도서관 국가전략정보포털

Contents
Foreword viii
1 The economic consequences of the second Trump administration: Key assessments 1

Part I: Economic transformation in the United States
2 Fiscal policy and debt sustainability 35
3 Presidential supremacy over administrative agencies 51
4 The rule of law 67
5 The economic effects of rapid federal downsizing 81
6 Immigration and border policies 95
7 The financial sector and global dollar system 111
8 Consumer financial protection 125
9 Competition policy 133
10 Artificial intelligence development and policy landscape 141
11 Will the United States continue to lead in science? 155
12 Health care 167
13 Downsizing the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 175
14 Changes in federal climate policy 181
15 Rural economies and communities 197
16 The (non) effect of tariffs on manufacturing employment 209

Part II: Reshaping the international economic system
17 The global public good 225
18 From MFN to “reciprocal tariffs” 233
19 US middle-class malaise and the world trade system 239
20 The aftermath of tariffs 245
21 First estimations of the effects of reciprocal tariffs 257
22 Who pays for US tariffs? 269
23 Seven questions about tariffs 279
24 National security tariffs on the auto industry 289

Part III: Spillovers to advanced economies
25 Strategic autonomy for Europe requires economic growth 303
26 Trade wars and European monetary policy 311
27 Rethinking the governance and funding of European rearmament 327
28 Advanced technology as Europe’s strategic imperative 339
29 The economics of the European defence buildup 349
30 Spending targets versus military capacity 361
31 Ukraine and Europe 369
32 Canada 379
33 Greenland 385
34 Japan 397

Part IV: Spillovers to emerging and developing economies
35 Emerging markets 407
36 China 413
37 India 423
38 Mexico 429
39 Latin America: Tariffs and industialisation 441
40 The impact of US foreign aid cuts on global health 459