목차
Title page 1
Contents 7
Foreword 13
Acknowledgments 15
About the Authors 17
Overview 19
Abbreviations 39
1. The Productivity Puzzle 41
The importance of productivity 41
Sources of the productivity slowdown 43
Decomposition of productivity growth 46
The role of new technologies 53
Notes 54
References 55
2. The Importance of National Frontier Firms 58
Frontier firms drive aggregate productivity 58
Size matters: The large impact of frontier firms 59
Highest productivity but falling market share 64
Higher wages but slow employment growth 65
Notes 67
References 68
3. The Performance of Frontier Firms in Global Context 69
Rapid productivity growth of global frontier firms 69
Lagging productivity growth of EAP frontier firms 73
EAP frontier falling behind in advanced technology use 82
Multinational affiliates also lag behind in advanced technology use 92
Notes 101
References 102
4. Why Are the Leaders Not Leading? 106
Firms require incentives from competition 106
Firms must have the necessary capabilities 119
Notes 133
References 133
5. How Can Policy Boost Technology Adoption and Productivity Growth? 137
Reforms to spur competition 138
Reforms to enhance human capital 141
Infrastructure and the synergies between reforms 147
References 149
APPENDIX A. Measurement of Human Capital, Capital Stocks, and the Productivity Frontier 152
APPENDIX B. Supplementary Figures 157
Tables 12
TABLE 4.1. Classification of the mismatch between skills in Vietnamese firms and those in technology origin countries 131
TABLE 4.2. Relationship between skills in Vietnamese firms and those in technology origin countries 131
Figures 9
FIGURE O.1. TFP growth trends in EAP and other selected countries, 1995-2022 20
FIGURE O.2. Decomposition of aggregate productivity growth in selected EAP countries 21
FIGURE O.3. Productivity growth along the firm productivity distribution, EAP countries 22
FIGURE O.4. Productivity gaps between the global frontier and national frontier in EAP countries, by digital sector intensity, 2003-19 23
FIGURE O.5. Technology gap between firms in developing and advanced EAP countries 24
FIGURE O.6. Technology and labor productivity gaps between MNE affiliates in advanced and emerging economies, 2022 25
FIGURE O.7. Share of MNE subsidiaries using AI or cloud computing, by usage level, 2022 26
FIGURE O.8. Share of sector value added and employment of EAP firms, by productivity decile 27
FIGURE O.9. Severity of constraints to manufacturing business operations in developing EAP countries, by labor productivity quartile (versus bottom quartile) 28
FIGURE O.10. Correlation between productivity growth of EAP frontier firms and the presence of state-owned or foreign-owned firms 29
FIGURE O.11. Extent of nontariff barriers and services trade restrictions in EAP countries relative to developing countries elsewhere 30
FIGURE O.12. Management skill gaps between EAP firms and US firms 32
FIGURE O.13. Correlation between firm productivity and tariff reform in Viet Nam 33
FIGURE O.14. Correlation between firm productivity and services reform in Viet Nam 34
FIGURE O.15. Comparisons of productivity and investments in data and software in relation to foreign ownership or fiber broadband capability in the Philippines, 2013-21 36
FIGURE 1.1. Decomposition of labor productivity, by country and income group 42
FIGURE 1.2. TFP growth trends in EAP and other selected countries, 1995-2022 43
FIGURE 1.3. Sources of aggregate productivity growth 44
FIGURE 1.4. Decomposition of aggregate productivity growth, selected EAP countries 47
FIGURE 1.5. Decomposition of labor productivity growth, selected EAP countries 48
FIGURE 1.6. Diffusion of robots and broadband in EAP countries 53
FIGURE 1.7. Within-firm changes in TFP from increases in IT capital or in data and software capital per worker, by industry type, the Philippines, 2010-21 54
FIGURE 2.1. Contribution to aggregate within-firm productivity growth in EAP, by productivity decile 59
FIGURE 2.2. Share of sector value added and employment of EAP firms, by productivity decile 60
FIGURE 2.3. Growth of value-added market share, by productivity decile 64
FIGURE 2.4. Average wages across EAP firms, by productivity level 65
FIGURE 2.5. Average one-year employment growth in EAP firms, by productivity decile 66
FIGURE 2.6. Responsiveness of employment to TFP growth in EAP countries and the United States 67
FIGURE 3.1. TFP growth of firms in advanced economies, by frontier status and sector, 2003-19 71
FIGURE 3.2. Fixed-cost and data investment increases among frontier firms in advanced economies 72
FIGURE 3.3. Productivity growth along the firm productivity distribution, EAP countries 74
FIGURE 3.4. Manufacturing productivity growth along the firm distribution, by EAP country 75
FIGURE 3.5. Services productivity growth along the firm distribution, by EAP country 76
FIGURE 3.6. EAP labor productivity growth along the firm distribution 76
FIGURE 3.7. Productivity gaps between the global frontier and national frontier firms in EAP countries, by digital sector intensity, 2003-19 77
FIGURE 3.8. Productivity growth along the firm distribution in selected non-EAP countries 81
FIGURE 3.9. Technology gap between firms in developing and advanced EAP countries, by sophistication level 83
FIGURE 3.10. Technology gap between firms in select developing countries and the Republic of Korea, by sophistication level 84
FIGURE 3.11. Use of ERP data analytics software, by GDP per capita 85
FIGURE 3.12. Data investment by firms in developing EAP countries versus EU countries, as a share of GDP, 2011 and 2018 86
FIGURE 3.13. Firms' fixed costs, as a share of total costs, in developing EAP countries versus the United States, 2005-23 87
FIGURE 3.14. Share of medium and large firms in emerging markets and advanced economies using ERP software, MNEs versus non-MNEs, 2022 94
FIGURE 3.15. Share of medium and large firms in emerging markets and advanced economies using AI, MNEs versus non-MNEs, 2022 95
FIGURE 3.16. Technology and labor productivity gaps between MNE affiliates in advanced and emerging economies, 2022 96
FIGURE 3.17. Share of MNE subsidiaries using AI or cloud computing, by usage level, 2022 97
FIGURE 3.18. Factors determining AI diffusion within MNEs 99
FIGURE 4.1. Illustration of the relationship between competition and productivity growth of frontier and laggard firms 107
FIGURE 4.2. Changes in firm entry and market concentration from a doubling of state ownership in a sector 108
FIGURE 4.3. State-owned enterprise revenue as a share of GDP, 2019 112
FIGURE 4.4. Young firms' share of industry employment in selected EAP countries, by sector digital intensity 113
FIGURE 4.5. Correlation between productivity growth of EAP frontier firms and the presence of state-owned or foreign-owned firms 115
FIGURE 4.6. Correlation between foreign ownership and technology diffusion and productivity in EAP countries 116
FIGURE 4.7. FDI restrictiveness in EAP countries and GDP per capita, 2023 117
FIGURE 4.8. Services trade restrictiveness in EAP countries and correlation with GDP per capita, 2022 118
FIGURE 4.9. Most-severe constraints to business operations of EAP's most-productive firms, by labor productivity quartile (versus bottom quartile) 121
FIGURE 4.10. Least-severe constraints to business operations of EAP's most-productive firms, by labor productivity quartile (versus bottom quartile) 121
FIGURE 4.11. Correlation between data center availability and GDP per capita in EAP and other countries 123
FIGURE 4.12. Share of workers with selected digital skills in developing versus advanced EAP countries 124
FIGURE 4.13. Management skill gaps between EAP firms and US firms, by level of management sophistication 125
FIGURE 4.14. Investment by Vietnamese firms in technologies from China, Viet Nam, and HICs, 2010-18 129
FIGURE 4.15. Skill abundance of country technology sources for Vietnamese firms, by firm skill quintile 130
FIGURE 4.16. Increase in Vietnamese firms' TFP from a doubling of technology capital per worker, by firm skill quartile 132
FIGURE 5.1. Correlation between firm productivity and tariff reform in Viet Nam 139
FIGURE 5.2. Correlation between firm productivity and services reform in Viet Nam 140
FIGURE 5.3. Trends in diffusion of online platforms in the Philippines and correlation with TFP and wages, 2010-20 141
FIGURE 5.4. Correlation of productivity growth and higher shares of educated workers in frontier firms, by education level 142
FIGURE 5.5. Demand for analytical, interpersonal, or routine tasks in China and Viet Nam, by firm's innovation intensity (regression coefficient) 143
FIGURE 5.6. Change in Philippine firms' e-commerce use after 2012 arrival of internet backbone 148
FIGURE 5.7. Comparisons of productivity or data analytics use in relation to foreign ownership or fiber broadband capability in the Philippines 149
Boxes 8
Box 1.1. Availability of microdata in the East Asia and Pacific region 45
Box 1.2. The reallocation puzzle 48
Box 2.1. Frontier firms and technology diffusion: Examples from Viet Nam 61
Box 3.1. Who are the frontier firms? 70
Box 3.2. Classifying digital-intensive sectors 73
Box 3.3. Productivity of national frontier firms since the COVID-19 pandemic 78
Box 3.4. Investments in fixed-cost technologies 88
Box 3.5. AI and productivity 93
Box 4.1. Drivers of misallocation and productivity loss in the East Asia and Pacific region 109
Box 5.1. Targeted support to firms 145
Maps 12
MAP O.1. Fixed broadband speeds in EAP countries, 2023 31
MAP 4.1. Number of border NTMs, by country, relative to global averages, 2021 120
MAP 4.2. Fixed broadband speeds in EAP countries, 2023 122
Box Figures 9
FIGURE B1.2.1. Relationship between firm value added and productivity in EAP countries 49
FIGURE B1.2.2. Decomposition of productivity growth outside the EAP region 50
FIGURE B3.3.1. Productivity gap between national EAP and US frontier firms, 2015-23 79
FIGURE B3.3.2. Productivity gap between EAP national and US frontier firms, by sector digital intensity, 2015-23 80
FIGURE B3.4.1. Markup rates in EAP, emerging markets, the United States, and other advanced economies, 2005-16 88
FIGURE B3.4.2. Fixed costs (as a share of total costs) for various technologies in the Philippines 90
Out of the Boxes 8
Out of the Box 1. How the EMS Group exemplifies long-term relationships and innovation 62
Out of the Box 2. How one multinational, STEER World, achieves growth and technology diffusion 90
Out of the Box 3. How companies can automate complex production processes 99
Out of the Box 4. How skills and local regulations matter for innovation at one food and beverage multinational 126
Appendix Figures 12
FIGURE B.1. Decomposition of aggregate productivity growth, select EAP countries by decomposition method 157
FIGURE B.2. Labor productivity growth along the firm labor productivity distribution in Mongolia and Thailand 158
FIGURE B.3. Composition of data investment across EU and EAP countries, 2018 159
Appendix Boxes 8
Box A.1. Challenges in measuring human capital 152
Box A.2. Measurement of capital 154
Box A.3. Measuring the productivity frontier 155
Appendix Box Figures 12
FIGURE BA.1.1. Contribution of human capital to differences in cross-country labor productivity 153
