목차
About This Report iii
Summary iv
How Artificial General Intelligence Could Affect the Rise and Fall of Nations: Visions for Potential AGI
Futures 1
Methods 1
Methodological Limitations 2
How AGI Could Transform the World 3
Post-AGI Geopolitical Worlds 4
The Centralization Axis 5
The Geopolitical Outcome Axis 5
Building Illustrative Scenarios 6
Scenario Structures and Road Map 7
Decentralized and Multiple Actor Scenarios 8
Scenario 1 Multilateral Coalition of Democracies Leads (Decentralized Development Empowers the United States) 8
Scenario 2 Cold War 2 (Decentralized Development Empowers US Adversaries) 11
Scenario 3 The Wild Frontier (Decentralized AGI Development Disempowers Both the United
States and Its Adversaries) 13
Scenario 4 The Corked Bottle (AGI Development by Multiple Actors Is Halted) 14
Centralized and One-Actor Scenarios 16
Scenario 5 The New ’90s (Centralized AGI Development Empowers the United States) 16
Scenario 6 Authoritarian Advantage (Centralized AGI Development Empowers the PRC) 18
Scenario 7 The AGI Coup (Centralized AGI Development Disempowers the United States and Its Adversaries) 19
Scenario 8 Mushroom Cloud Computing (Centralized AI Development Is Halted) 22
Conclusion 23
APPENDIX A 25
What Interviews Show Experts Think Is Important About AGI and Geopolitics 25
APPENDIX B 29
Interview Protocol 29
Abbreviations 31
References 32
