Title page 1

Contents 1

Abstract 1

1. The Red Sea crisis 2

2. Maritime trade 4

2.1. Ports and connectivity 4

2.2. Economic and environmental costs 5

3. Freedom of navigation disrupted 7

3.1. The Houthis' new threat 8

3.2. A fragmented response 9

4. Regional politics and the role of Italy 13

4.1. The Red Sea and the conflict in Yemen 13

4.2. The Red Sea and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict 14

4.3. The other Red Sea littoral countries 15

5. Balancing deterrence and diplomacy 17

References 19

Figures 8

Figure 1. Houthi anti-ship cruise missiles 8

Figure 2. Houthi anti-ship ballistic missiles 9

Figure 3. EUNAVFOR Aspides: military ship contributions by EU member state 10

Figure 4. Transits through Bab el-Mandeb between late 2022 and spring 2025 12