국회도서관 국가전략정보포털

Title page 1

Contents 1

Abstract 2

Non-Technical Summary 3

1. Introduction 4

2. Structural Framework 10

2.1. Firm-Level Variables 11

2.2. Aggregate Variables 15

3. Data 18

3.1. Firm-Level Data 19

3.2. Climate Data 20

3.3. Main Combined Data 22

4. Empirical Strategy 23

5. Results 25

5.1. Sales, Inputs, and Marginal Revenue Products 25

5.2. Demand-Adjusted Productivity 28

5.3. The Demand Channel and Adaptation Effects 30

5.3.1. Demand versus Productivity 30

5.3.2. Adaptation 32

6. Aggregate Effects 34

6.1. Aggregate Productivity Loss 34

6.1.1. Measurement and Identification 35

6.1.2. Results 36

6.2. Discussion 38

6.2.1. Advantage of Theory-Based Aggregation of Firm-Level Climate Damages 39

6.2.2. Comparison with the Literature 40

6.2.3. Interpretation of the Results 41

6.3. Regional Heterogeneity 42

7. Conclusion 43

References 44

Online Appendix 50

A. Structural Framework 52

A.1. Aggregate Gross Output TFP 52

A.2. Solow Residual 57

B. Data 59

B.1. Firm-Level Data 59

B.2. Climate Data 60

B.2.1. Description of E-OBS data 60

B.2.2. Distribution of Meteorological Stations 61

B.2.3. Climate Data Summary Statistics 62

B.3. Temperature bins 62

C. Empirical Results 63

C.1. Additional Controls and Alternative Independent Variables 63

C.2. Additional Sample Cuts 68

C.3. Additional Demand-Adjusted Productivity Results 71

D. Aggregate Results 71

D.1. Counterfactual Temperature Distributions 71

D.2. Additional Robustness Main Results 74

D.3. Regional Heterogeneity 74

Acknowledgements 77

Tables 21

Table 1. Summary Statistics of Climate Data (1999-2013) 21

Table 2. Average Effect of Temperature on Sales and Inputs 26

Table 3. Average Effect of Temperature on Revenue-Based Marginal Product of Inputs 26

Table 4. Average Effect of Temperature on Demand-Adjusted Productivity 29

Table 5. Effect of Temperature on Sales of Tradable versus Non-Tradable Sectors 32

Table 6. Effect of Temperature on Sales and MRPK Conditional on Adaptation 34

Table 7. Effect of Climate Change on Aggregate Productivity 37

Figures 20

Figure 1. Average Yearly Temperature 20

Figure 2. Average Distribution of Days Within Temperature Bins 22

Figure 3. Counterfactual Average Distribution of Days Within Temperature Bins 36

Figure 4. Differences Across Productivity Loss Functions 40

Figure 5. Regional Productivity Losses for 2℃ Warming Scenario 42

Appendix Tables 60

Table B.1. Summary Statistics (1999-2013) 60

Table B.2. Summary Statistics of Climate Data (1950-2020) 62

Table B.3. Summary Statistics of Days Within Temperature Bins (1999-2013) 62

Table C.4. Average Effect of Temperature on Sales and Inputs 64

Table C.5. Average Effect of Temperature on Sales and Inputs-Robustness 66

Table C.6. Average Effect of Temperature on Revenue-Based Marginal Products of Inputs-Robustness 67

Table C.7. Average Effect of Temperature on Sales and Inputs-Robustness II 69

Table C.8. Average Effect of Temperature on Revenue-Based Marginal Products of Inputs-Robustness II 70

Table C.9. Sector-Level Demand-Adjusted Productivity Losses 71

Table D.10. Summary Statistics of Counterfactual Distribution of Days Within Temperature Bins 72

Table D.11. Summary Statistics of Counterfactual Change in Distribution of Days Within Temperature Bins 73

Table D.12. Climate Change Impact on Aggregate Productivity With Adaptation 74

Appendix Figures 61

Figure B.1. Distribution of Meteorological Station Used by E-OBS 61

Figure D.2. Regional Productivity Losses for Alternative Warming Scenarios 75

Figure D.3. Correlation Between Regional Losses and GDP Per Capita 76