목차
Preface i
Summary iii
Figures vi
Tables vi
Boxes vi
Abbreviations vii
Acknowledgements viii
Chapter 1. Introduction 1
1.1. Context 1
1.2. Research scope and objectives 3
1.3. Methodology 3
Chapter 2. Russian strategic culture 5
2.1. Key characteristics of Russian strategic culture 6
Chapter 3. Impact on low-yield nuclear posture 12
3.1. Russian deterrence philosophy 12
3.2. Impact on nuclear decision making 15
3.3. Nuclear signalling in Ukraine 18
3.4. Conditions for nuclear use 19
3.5. Conventional and nuclear entanglement 21
Chapter 4. Strategic culture scenarios 24
4.1. Scenario design 24
4.2. Escalatory defensive use in a regional conflict 25
4.3. Demonstrative use to deter NATO 26
4.4. Response to a cyber-attack 27
4.5. Failure of a hybrid warfare campaign 29
4.6. Responses to the scenarios 30
4.7. Conclusion and alternative scenarios 34
Chapter 5. Conclusion 35
5.1. Key findings 35
5.2. Implications for NATO Allies 35
5.3. Areas for further research 37
References 39
Annex A. List of interviewees 45
Annex B. Longlist of strategic culture scenarios 46
vi Understanding Russian strategic culture and the low-yield nuclear threat
Figures
Figure 1. Size of the strategic and NSNW arsenals of NATO Allies and Russia 2
Tables
Table 1. Themes identified in Russian strategic culture 5
Boxes
Box 1. Strategic culture scenarios 24
