목차
Title page 1
Contents 1
Abstract 2
1. Introduction and overview 3
2. Evaluating inflation targeting strategies 6
2.1. FIT versus FAIT: A quantitative evaluation 6
2.2. FIT versus FAIT: Robustness 11
3. Some principles of optimal monetary policy in response to inflationary shocks 14
3.1. Aggregate supply shocks 15
3.2. Sectoral dynamics 16
3.3. Nonlinearities 18
3.4. Implications for FIT versus FAIT 19
4. Conclusion: Effective monetary policy in the post-pandemic world 19
References 21
Appendixes 27
Figures 9
Figure 1. Median outcomes at the ELB in a recession, alternative policy rules 9
Figure 2. Median outcomes at the ELB in a recession, alternative shortfall rules 13
Appendix Tables 29
Table A.1.3.1. Distributions of outcomes under alternative assumptions about expectations formation and fiscal support 29
Table A.1.3.2. Distribution of inflation (π) under FIT and FAIT 29
Table A.1.3.3. Distribution of outcomes under alternative shortfall policy rules 30
Appendix Figures 32
Figure A.1.4.1. Median outcomes under alternative threshold policy rules at the ELB in a recession 32
Figure A.1.5.1. Median outcomes under alternative policy rules at the ELB in a recession (MCAP expectations) 34
Figure A.2.2.1. Impulse responses: Productivity shock under optimal policy 36
Figure A.2.3.1. Impulse response: Aggregate productivity shock under optimal policy with and without sectoral constraints 37
Figure A.2.4.1. Impulse response: Sectoral production shock under optimal and inflation stabilization policies 39
Figure A.3.2.1. Impulse responses in the Three-Equation New Keynesian Model with nonlinearities 41
Figure A.3.3.1. Impulse responses to a supply shock in the FRB/US model 43
