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THE SCOPE OF THE INQUIRY 1
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3
THE NATIONAL SECURITY THREAT TO THE UK 9
THE IRANIAN REGIME 11
Iranian leadership and wider security architecture 11
Iran’s intelligence institutions 13
Competition within the Iranian Intelligence Services 17
OBJECTIVES OF THE IRANIAN STATE 21
Overarching objectives 21
What motivates Iran? 22
IRAN AND THE UK 29
How does Iran perceive the UK? 31
Iran’s strategic objectives towards the UK 32
Overall threat to the UK 33
How does the Iranian threat compare with Russia and China? 33
IRAN’S INTERNATIONAL PARTNERSHIPS 35
Russia 35
China 38
North Korea 40
Syria 41
*** 41
*** 41
Aligned militant and terrorist groups in the Middle East 41
THE THREAT: PHYSICAL ATTACKS 49
Iranian intent to carry out physical hostile activity 49
Iranian capability in the UK 52
How will the physical threat evolve? 59
THE THREAT: NUCLEAR PROGRAMME 61
Iran’s previous attempts to develop a nuclear weapon 61
2015 JCPOA nuclear agreement 61
2018 US withdrawal from the JCPOA 62
Iranian nuclear intent and objectives 62
Iranian nuclear decision-makers and actors 65
Iranian nuclear capability 66
The 2015 JCPOA: impact on the threat 68
How will the Iranian nuclear threat evolve? 70
THE THREAT: ESPIONAGE 75
Intent and capability 75
Purposes and targets 76
Using human sources 82
Using technical means 86
THE THREAT: CYBER ENVIRONMENT AND CAPABILITIES 87
Iranian cyber environment 87
Cyber tools and techniques 89
THE THREAT: OFFENSIVE CYBER 93
Objectives 93
Iranian capability 93
Iranian intent 94
Key actors 96
Targeted sectors 97
THE THREAT: INTERFERENCE 103
The Iranian interference threat to the UK 103
Who is Iran targeting and why? 105
Methodology: intimidation 108
Methodology: hack-and-leak 110
Methodology: traditional and social media 111
Methodology: Iranian organisations in the UK 113
THE THREAT: TO UK INTERESTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST 117
Overarching threat in the region 117
Threat to individuals 118
The threat to UK maritime, commercial, energy and security interests 122
Impact of the killing of General Soleimani 125
How will the threat to UK interests in the Middle East evolve? 126
HOW IS THE UK RESPONDING? 129
STRATEGY AND POLICY RESPONSE 131
Is HMG thinking long-term enough? 131
Policy-taker or policy-maker? 131
Overlapping strategies 132
MINISTERIAL RESPONSIBILITIES 147
Foreign Secretary 147
Home Secretary 149
RESOURCING, PRIORITISATION AND EXPERTISE 151
GCHQ 151
MI5 152
SIS 153
DI 154
JIO 154
HSG 154
NSS 155
Cross-Government capability 155
USING INTERNATIONAL PARTNERSHIPS 159
Key partners 159
*** 165
*** 165
*** 165
Intelligence diplomacy 165
UK INTELLIGENCE COVERAGE 169
Operating against Iran 169
Intelligence gaps and assessment confidence 170
DEFENDING THE UK 175
Responsibilities 175
LEGISLATION, SANCTIONS AND PROSCRIPTION 179
Legislation 179
Sanctions 183
Proscription 185
THE RESPONSE: PHYSICAL ATTACKS 189
Operation *** 189
Assassination 191
Kidnap and lure operations 192
THE RESPONSE: ESPIONAGE 195
Tackling human espionage 195
Tackling cyber espionage 200
THE RESPONSE: OFFENSIVE CYBER 203
(i) Understanding Iranian offensive cyber activity 203
(ii) Bolstering resilience 203
(iii) Active Cyber Defence 205
(iv) Raising the cost 206
National Cyber Force activity 208
THE RESPONSE: INTERFERENCE 211
The Defending Democracy Taskforce 211
The Islamic Centre of England 213
Countering online disinformation 213
THE RESPONSE: NUCLEAR PROGRAMME 217
Counter-proliferation: Iran’s declared nuclear activities 217
Counter-proliferation: holding Iran to account 218
Counter-proliferation: understanding weaponisation plans and countering progress 219
A new settlement: understanding and discouraging 220
Monitoring effectiveness of sanctions 221
THE RESPONSE: IN THE MIDDLE EAST 223
Individuals 223
UK interests 224
ANNEX A: FULL LIST OF RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS 229
ANNEX B: CODE WORDS 243
ANNEX C: LIST OF WITNESSES 245
