목차
Title page 1
Contents 1
Abstract 3
I. Introduction 4
II. Survey Waves and Questions 6
III. Geopolitical Risk and Consumer Sentiment 9
IV. Geopolitical Concerns and Spending 12
V. Conclusion 14
References 14
Tables 21
Table 1. Household Consumption Response to Changes in Geopolitical Concerns 21
Figures 17
Figure 1. Geopolitical risk, Financial Sentiment, Spending, and Income Uncertainty 17
Figure 2. Distribution of Geopolitical and Climate-change Concerns 18
Figure 3. The Effect of Conflict Durations on Macroeconomic Expectations 19
Figure 4. The Effect of Conflict Durations on Households' Financial Sentiment and Real Consumption 20
Appendix Tables 27
Appendix Table 1. Descriptive Statistics 27
Appendix Table 2. Socioeconomic Predictors of Geopolitical Concerns 28
Appendix Table 3. Consumption Response by Country 29
Appendix Figures 22
Appendix Figure 1. Hypothetical Scenario Responses for Different Conflict Durations 22
Appendix Figure 2. The Effect of Conflict Durations on Worse Financial Sentiment and Lower Real Consumption 23
Appendix Figure 3. The Effect of Conflict Durations on Financial Sentiment and Real Consumption, incl. Consumer Fixed Effects 24
Appendix Figure 4. The Effect of Conflict Durations on Financial Sentiment and Real Consumption 25
Appendix Figure 5. The Effect of Conflict Durations on Macroeconomic Expectations, incl. consumer Fixed Effects 26
