Tipping the Scales : Emerging AI Capabilities and the Cyber Offense-Defense Balance

Executive Summary 1

Introduction 3

The Cyber Domain and AI’s Role Today 4
　The Emerging Capabilities of Frontier Models 5

AI in Cyberspace: Offense and Defense 8
　AI’s Potential for Defenders 9
　Challenges to AI’s Defensive Potential 9

Model Release and Security Considerations 17

Conclusion and Recommendations 19

Appendix: Stages of Cyber Operations and Example Applications of AI 26