목차
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS 6
LIST OF FIGURES 7
LIST OF TABLES 7
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 8
1. INFLATION DEVELOPMENTS, OUTLOOK, AND RISKS 9
1.1. Current inflation developments 9
1.2. Inflation outlook 13
1.3. Risks surrounding the inflation outlook 14
2. MONETARY TRANSMISSION DURING THE RECENT RATE CYCLE 17
2.1. Interest rate and balance sheet developments 17
2.2. The current monetary policy stance 19
2.3. Monetary transmission to long-term rates in the recent rate cycle 20
2.4. Bond market fragmentation and monetary policy transmission in the euro area 21
3. ECB COMMUNICATION: CURRENT STRATEGY AND POSSIBLE REFINEMENTS 25
3.1. Forward guidance vs. meeting-by-meeting approach 25
3.2. Communicating the outlook in the face of uncertainty 28
3.3. Analysis of most recent ECB monetary policy statement and account 30
4. CONCLUSION 34
REFERENCES 35
ANNEX 37
A1. HICPX INFLATION OUTLOOK 37
A2. MEASURING THE TONE OF MONETARY POLICY COMMUNICATION 38
