목차
Acknowledgments v
Country Groupings vi
Assumptions and Conventions viii
Middle East and Central Asia: Country Abbreviations viii
Executive Summary ix
1. Regional Developments and Economic Outlook: Resilience amid Uncertainty: Will It Last? 1
1.1. Global Context: Surprising Resilience 1
1.2. Recent Developments: Economic Resilience amid High Uncertainty and Conflicts 2
1.3. Outlook: From Economic Resilience to Stronger Growth 6
1.4. Risks: Will Resilience Last? 10
1.5. Policies: Build Buffers, Strengthen Resilience, and Seize Opportunities 13
1.6. The IMF Remains Committed to Supporting the MENAP and CCA Regions 17
References 24
2. Boosting Economic Recovery after Conflict: Patterns and Policies 26
2.1. Introduction 26
2.2. Assessing the Duration and Resilience of Post-Conflict Recoveries 27
2.3. Conditions and Policies Supporting Post-Conflict Recovery 31
2.4. Lessons from Case Studies 34
2.5. Conclusions 35
References 40
BOXES
Box 1.1. Caucasus and Central Asia: Growth Beyond Recovery 18
Box 1.2. Fiscal Rules, Spreads, and the Impact of Global Shocks 20
Box 1.3. Monetary Policy Frameworks and the Economic Impact of Shocks 22
Box 2.1. Lessons from Economies Recovering after Conflict 37
FIGURES
Figure 1.1. World Uncertainty Indices 1
Figure 1.2. Effective Simple Average Tariff Rate with the United States 2
Figure 1.3. Estimated Export Value Losses Related to New United States Tariffs 3
Figure 1.4. CCA and MENAP Regions: Goods Trade Value, January–May 2025 3
Figure 1.5. Change in Oil Production since December 2024 and Oil Price 4
Figure 1.6. Inward Remittances 4
Figure 1.7. Sovereign External Debt Spreads 5
Figure 1.8. Nominal Effective Exchange Rate 5
Figure 1.9. CCA and MENAP Regions: Real GDP Growth 5
Figure 1.10. CCA and MENAP Regions: Headline Inflation 6
Figure 1.11. CCA and MENAP Regions: Real GDP Growth Forecast 7
Figure 1.12. CCA and MENAP Regions: Current Account Balance 8
Figure 1.13. CCA and MENAP Regions: Headline Inflation Forecast and Revisions 9
Figure 1.14. CCA and MENAP Regions: Fiscal Impulse 10
Figure 1.15. CCA and MENAP Regions: Impacts of Global Uncertainty Shocks on Real GDP Growth 11
Figure 1.16. Sovereign Nexus and Gross Financing Needs, 2024 11
Figure 1.17. Oil Prices 12
Figure 1.18. Impact of Conflict on Real GDP per Capita 12
Figure 1.19. CCA and MENAP Regions: General Government Gross Debt 14
Figure 1.20 Monetary Policy Stance 14
Figure 1.21. MENAP Region: Estimated Cumulative Impact of Increase in Central Bank Independence Index on Inflation 15
Figure 1.22. North Africa: Real Export Gains from Higher Integration with the European Union and Sub-Saharan Africa 16
Figure 1.23. Artificial Intelligence Preparedness, 2023 16
Figure 1.24. Unemployment Rates, Latest 17
Figure 2.1. Post-Conflict Peace Episodes, 1989–2024 28
Figure 2.2. Average Conflict Intensity and Duration 28
Figure 2.3. Median Level of GDP per Capita around Conflict End 28
Figure 2.4. Post-Conflict Recovery: Evolution of Macroeconomic Channels 29
Figure 2.5. Successful Versus Failed Post-Conflict Recovery Cases: Conditions during and after Conflict 30
Figure 2.6. Macroeconomic Volatility and Successful Recoveries 31
Figure 2.7. Public Spending and Successful Recoveries 32
Figure 2.8. Debt Restructuring and Successful Recovery 33
Figure 2.9. Institutions: Initial Conditions and Efforts to Improve Governance 34
Figure 2.10. Correlates of Successful Recoveries across CCA and MENAP Economies, and the Rest of the World 35
TABLES
Selected Economic Indicators 42
Real GDP Growth 44
