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Backfire : export controls helped Huawei and hurt U.S. firms

(역효과: 화웨이를 돕고 미국 기업에 피해를 입힌 미국의 수출 통제)

목차

Title page 1

Contents 2

KEY TAKEAWAYS 1

INTRODUCTION 3

HUAWEI 101: ITS BUSINESSES AND U.S. ACTIONS AGAINST THE COMPANY 4

U.S. Government's Sanctions on Huawei for Alleged Business with Iran 6

U.S. Government's Attempts to Cripple the Company 7

The Effect of Export Controls on Huawei's Global Market Share 10

Huawei's Innovations After the Export Controls 10

HOW HUAWEI BOUNCED BACK FROM EXPORT CONTROLS 12

China's Mercantilism Allowed Huawei to Survive 12

Huawei Had More Than Six Years to Prepare "Spare Tires" to Deal With Export Controls 14

Expanding Reliance on the Local Market 14

Huawei Overinvested in R&D Capabilities Before Restrictions, and Kept Investing After Them 17

Huawei Started Working on an Indigenous OS Years Before the Export Controls 20

Investing in Semiconductors Was Critical to Continue the Company's Operations 21

Other Short-Term Measures 21

HOW EXPORT CONTROLS ON HUAWEI ARE AFFECTING U.S. COMPANIES 22

Export Controls Cut U.S. Businesses' Sales by at Least $33 billion 22

Export Controls Triggered the PRC to Retaliate Against U.S. Companies 25

WHY THIS MATTERS 26

POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS 26

CONCLUSIONS 28

ENDNOTES 29

Tables 5

Table 1. De facto import bans-actions to exclude Huawei from U.S. 5G networks (2017 to present) 5

Table 2. Summary of the U.S.-Japan (1980s) vs. U.S.-China (present day) tech rivalry 9

Table 3. Examples of U.S. advanced manufacturing companies affected by the export controls 24

Figures 6

Figure 1. Prevalence of Huawei technologies in 5G infrastructure outside China 6

Figure 2. U.S. and Japanese global semiconductor market share, by revenues, 1984-2019 9

Figure 3. Huawei's revenues from China as a share of total revenues 15

Figure 4. Huawei's revenues by region (billion CNY, 2024 prices) 16

Figure 5. Huawei's market share in China for smartphone sales 17

Figure 6. Real R&D expenditure growth by company (indexed; 2013 = 100) 18

Figure 7. R&D intensity by company (R&D expenditure as a share of net sales) 19

Figure 8. Number of R&D employees and R&D personnel as a share of total employees for Huawei 20

Figure 9. Huawei's raw materials as a share of total inventories 22

Figure 10. Lost sales to U.S. suppliers due to export controls against Huawei between 2021 and 2024 23

Figure 11. R&D expenditure (indexed; 2020 = 100) 25

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Backfire : export controls helped Huawei and hurt U.S. firms

(역효과: 화웨이를 돕고 미국 기업에 피해를 입힌 미국의 수출 통제)