Europe-Russia: Balance of Power Review

INTRODUCTION 11

THE ECONOMIC FRONTS 16
 Explaining Russia’s initial resilience and economic adjustment 17
 The Russian economy heading into stagflation since fall 2024  23
 EU’s pivot to geoeconomic power: European economies have accelerated the energy transition and aligned with a strategic autonomy agenda 31

DEFENSE AND NATIONAL SECURITY: LOOKING FOR A EUROPEAN OFFSET STRATEGY 42
 General strategies 43
 The prospect of Russia-Europe military confrontation 50
 Resource strategy and defense industry 62
 Indirect and hybrid strategies 69

POLITICAL SYSTEMS AND SOCIETAL RESILIENCE 75
 Russian population and elites are conditioned for lengthy confrontation, Europe is not 77
 In the long term, Europe’s model is more attractive than Russia’s 98
 After Putin, is reconciliation with Europe possible? 108

ALLIANCES AND INTERNATIONAL POSITIONING, THE RACE FOR GLOBAL STRATEGIC SUPPORT 112
 How is the war redefining the alliances and partnerships of Russia and the EU? 112
 Strengths and weaknesses of international positioning 129

CONCLUSION 143

LIST OF ACRONYMS 145

BIBLIOGRAPHY 149
 Books149
 Official statements, reports, scientific articles 154
 Online resources 163