From Plausible Tomorrows to Prompt Action on AI: Dealing with AI-Augmented Risks to Dutch National Security

Executive Summary 1

Introduction 3
 Plausible Tomorrows Guiding Action Today 5

Taking Stock: Where Does AI Stand? 7
 Baseline and Trajectory of AI – Ten Key Takeaways 8
 Key Uncertainties: AI Access and Ubiquitousness 10

Plausible Tomorrow 1: AI Lights Up the Port of Rotterdam 12
 Context 12
 Description 12
 National Security Implications for the Netherlands in the EU Context 14

Plausible Tomorrow 2: A Fragile Power (Im)Balance 16
 Context 16
 Description 16
 National Security Implications for the Netherlands in the EU Context 18

Plausible Tomorrow 3: White Flag Festival: Surrender to the AI Gods 20
 Context 20
 Description 20
 National Security Implications for the Netherlands in the EU Context 22

From Foresight to Execution: Policy Priorities for the Netherlands and the EU 24

Appendix. Scenarios for the Next Three to Five Years: Strategic Foresight Methodology 31
 Two Uncertainties, Four Quadrants 32