목차
Title page 1
Contents 9
Preface 4
Foreword 5
Acknowledgements 6
Executive Summary 11
1. Overview and policy highlights 13
1.1. Introduction 14
1.1.1. The novelty of the Paris Agreement 14
1.1.2. Why assessing the impact and the future possibilities of the Paris Agreement is timelier than ever before? 14
1.1.3. What does this report examine? 15
1.2. Methodology: an expert survey approach 16
1.2.1. Why relying on an expert survey using "what-if" scenarios? 16
1.2.2. An overview of the survey 17
1.2.3. What is the contribution of this work? 17
1.3. The key takeaways 18
1.4. An extended summary of the results 19
References 22
Notes 23
2. The survey 24
2.1. Survey description and design 25
2.1.1. The added value of the Paris Agreement 25
2.1.2. Current efforts and barriers 27
2.1.3. Enabling factors 27
2.1.4. Transformative change 28
2.2. Response collection and expert sampling 28
2.3. Weighting observations for expertise and potential disengagement 29
2.4. This study in relation to the existing literature 30
2.4.1. Expert elicitation surveys 30
2.4.2. Public opinion surveys 31
2.4.3. Laboratory experiments 33
References 34
Annex 2.A. Additional information on experts and treatment of responses 37
Notes 40
3. The added value of the Paris Agreement 41
3.1. The past, present and future added value of the Paris Agreement 42
3.2. The added value of the Paris Agreement vis-à-vis the Kyoto Protocol 47
3.3. Characteristics of the Paris Agreement that underpin its added value 50
References 50
Annex 3.A. Econometric analysis of non-government responses (survey parts A1 and A2) 51
Notes 57
4. Views on the current situation 58
4.1. Alignment, compatibility and progress 59
4.2. Barriers and challenges 61
References 65
Notes 69
5. Enabling success and transformative change 71
5.1. The future: enablers and sources of change 72
5.2. Policy directions for drastic emissions reductions 75
References 77
Notes 80
Annex A. OECD Survey on the transformative effects of the Paris Agreement 82
Tables 10
Table 2.1. Likert-scale for the transformative potential and the advancement of policies 28
Table 4.1. Consensus among government officials and non-government experts 64
Table 5.1. Consensus in expert views on the drivers of change 74
Figures 10
Figure 1.1. Main questions addressed in the study 15
Figure 2.1. Overview of the survey 25
Figure 3.1. The perceived evolution of mitigation with and without the Paris Agreement 43
Figure 3.2. Assertion, agreement, and disagreement on the added value of the Paris Agreement 45
Figure 3.3. Visualising the world in 2025 with the Kyoto Protocol still in place 48
Figure 3.4. Breaking down the added value of the Paris Agreement 49
Figure 4.1. The current situation from the viewpoint of policymakers and other climate experts 60
Figure 4.2. Challenges to overcome to achieve the Paris Agreement's goals 62
Figure 5.1. Expert views on how change will occur in the mid-term and long-run 73
Figure 5.2. Transformative potential and advancement of policies 76
Figure 5.3. Policymakers and non-government experts hold similar views, but the latter see more space for policy advancement 77
Boxes 10
Box 2.1. Using expert elicitation to compare factual and counterfactual pathways 26
Box 3.1. The agreement index and its possible interpretations 47
Annex Tables 10
Annex Table 2.A.1. Distribution of participating government experts 37
Annex Table 2.A.2. Distribution of participating non-government experts 37
Annex Table 2.A.3. Treatment of responses 39
Annex Table 3.A.1. Econometric analysis of non-government expert responses 51
Annex Table 3.A.2. Econometric analysis of non-government responses with year fixed effects 52
Annex Table 3.A.3. Statistical tests on econometric regression results 53
Annex Table 3.A.4. Probabilities predicted by generalised logistic regression 56
Annex Figures 10
Annex Figure 3.A.1. Response probabilities predicted by an ordered logit model 55
