□ 유엔환경계획(UNEP)은 9일(현지시간) 발간한 지구환경전망(GEO) 보고서에서 식량 생산과 화석연료 사용이 시간당 50억달러(약 7조3천억원) 규모의 환경 피해를 유발한다고 분석하며, 기후 위기, 자연 파괴, 오염을 더는 단순한 환경 위기로만 볼 수 없다고 지적함
ㅇ 세계 인구 증가에 따른 식량과 에너지 수요 증가로 환경 위기가 악화하고 있지만, 여전히 식량과 에너지는 대부분 지구를 오염시키고 자연을 파괴하는 방식으로 생산된다는 것
□ 보고서에 따르면 석탄, 석유, 가스 등 화석연료 연소와 산업형 농업으로 인한 자연 파괴와 오염은 매년 45조달러(약 6경6천조원) 규모의 환경 피해를 일으킴
ㅇ 이 가운데 식량 시스템 비용이 20조달러로 가장 비중이 큼. 교통이 13조달러, 화석연료 기반 전력이 12조달러로 그 뒤를 이음
ㅇ 따라서 에너지와 식량 가격에 이러한 비용을 실제로 반영해 소비자가 더 친환경적인 선택을 하도록 유도해야 한다고 보고서는 권고함. 구체적인 방안으로 보편적 기본소득, 육류세, 식물성 식품 보조금 등을 제안함
ㅇ 이러한 기후변화 대응이 가져올 이익을 2070년 연 20조달러, 2100년 연 100조달러 수준으로 보고서는 추산했다. 장기적으로 보면 '행동하는 비용'이 '행동하지 않는 비용'보다 적다고 설명함
ㅇ 환경 위기가 촉발하는 피해를 멈추려면 글로벌 거버넌스·경제·금융 시스템을 전면적으로 바꿔야 한다고 전문가들은 강조함
□ 보고서 공동 의장인 에드가르 구테에레스-에스펠레타 전 코스타리카 환경장관은 이 같은 위기를 "붕괴가 불가피해지기 전에 지금 당장 우리 인류 시스템을 전면적으로 전환하라는 긴급한 요구"라고 해석함. 아울러 "환경 위기는 정치·안보적 비상사태이며 사회를 지탱하는 중요한 결속을 위협하고 있다"고 덧붙임
□ 1천100페이지 분량의 올해 GEO 보고서 작성에는 과학자 200여명이 참여했다. 이 보고서는 약 5년 주기로 발간됨
ㅇ 다만 유엔 규정상 모든 나라가 합의해 보고서 핵심 내용을 담은 요약문을 내야 하는데, 올해는 화석연료 단계적 폐지 등의 언급에 대한 사우디아라비아와 미국 등의 반대로 합의에 이르지 못함. 이와 관련해 영국은 28개국을 대표해 낸 성명에서 "이 과정을 과학이 아니라고 깎아내리는 시도를 목격했다"며 "우리는 모든 국가가 국익을 지킬 권리를 존중하지만 과학은 타협의 대상이 아니다"라고 비판함
[출처] 유엔 "식량·화석연료 생산, 시간당 7조원대 피해 유발" (2025.12.09.) / 연합뉴스
목차
Acknowledgements iv
Foreword xxix
Preface by GEO-7 Co-Chairs xxx
Part A: Overview and Context 2
Indigenous Knowledge and Local Knowledge Chapeau A4
1 Introduction 9
1.1 Acting now for a healthy planet: initiating transformative change 10
1.2 A solution-focused approach for sustainability transformations 12
1.3 Realizing transformative change: solution pathways and driving the transformation 15
1.4 Structure of GEO-7 17
Appendix 1.1 Key findings from previous global environmental assessments since 2019 21
Reference 25
2 Historical, current, and projected drivers and pressures of environmental change 29
Chapter Summary 30
2.1 Introduction 34
2.2 Drivers of Change 34
2.3 Pressures that Affect the Global Environment 56
2.4 Drivers, Pressures, and the Global Environmental Crises: Connecting the Dots 69
References 73
Part B: State and Trends of the Environment 84
Global Environment Crises Chapeau 86
Indigenous Knowledge and Local Knowledge Chapeau B 108
3 Air 113
Chapter summary 114
3.1 Introduction 117
3.2 State and trends of atmospheric composition 119
3.3 Connections between the atmosphere and biodiversity loss and land degradation 126
3.4 Impacts on human systems 131
3.5 Progress towards the goals of global agreements 141
References 146
4 Land and Soils 159
Chapter summary 160
4.1 Introduction 163
4.2 Pressures on land and soils 164
4.3 State and trends of the land 167
4.4 Impacts of natural ecosystems on human well-being and human systems 190
4.5 Progress towards internationally agreed environmental goals 192
4.6 Indigenous as well as Local Knowledge in land and soil management 196
References 199
5 Oceans and Coasts 213
Chapter summary 214
5.1 Introduction 217
5.2 State and trends 218
5.3 Human systems 238
5.4 Progress towards internationally agreed goals 242
References 250
6 Freshwater .261
Chapter Summary 262
6.1 Introduction 265
6.2 Pressures on freshwater systems 265
6.3 Water resources 271
6.4 Water quality 275
6.5 Freshwater biodiversity 278
6.6 Impacts of freshwater system changes on human well-being and human systems 283
6.7 Progress towards meeting internationally agreed-upon freshwater goals 291
References 293
7 Implication of Environmental Crises on the Socioeconomic Dimensions of the Sustainable Development Goals 305
Chapter Summary 306
7.1 Introduction 309
7.2 Implications of the global environmental crises on the socioeconomic dimensions of individual SDGs 310
7.3 Common Themes 332
7.4 Conclusion 334
References 337
8 Interlinkages Across Environmental Changes, Scales and Geographic Regions and Subregions 349
Chapter Summary 350
8.1 Introduction 354
8.2 Africa and subregions 356
8.3 Asia and the Pacific and subregions 369
8.4 Eastern Europe and subregions 378
8.5 Latin America and the Caribbean and subregions 391
8.6 Western Europe and Others Group and subregions 407
8.7 Telecoupling 424
References 430
Part C: System Transformations and Outlooks 458
Indigenous Knowledge and Local Knowledge Chapeau C460
9 Scenario Methodology: Current Trends and Transformation Pathways 465
Chapter Summary 466
9.1 Introduction 468
9.2 Explorative and target-seeking scenarios 468
9.3 Internationally agreed goals used in the scenario analysis 471
9.4 Process of building the narratives for the target-seeking scenarios 473
9.5 Models used to quantify the scenarios 475
9.6 Challenges and limitations of the scenario approach 477
9.7 Presentation of results 478
Appendix 9.1: Models used in global analysis (Chapters 10 and 11) 479
References 498
10 Continuation of current trends – global implications 501
Chapter Summary 502
10.1 Introduction 505
10.2 Drivers of environmental change under current trends 505
10.3 Systems development under current trends 507
10.4 Environmental implications under current trends 511
10.5 Tipping points and non-linearities 521
10.6 Socioeconomic implications under current trends 525
10.7 The need to break with current trends 533
References 534
11 Transformation pathways towards achieving global goals – global implications 543
Chapter Summary 544
11.1 Introduction 547
11.2 Two narratives of transformation 548
11.3 Systems transformations 552
11.4 Environmental implications 561
11.5 Socioeconomic implications 570
11.6 Synergies in the transformation 579
11.7 Challenges and opportunities 584
Appendix 11.1 Narratives quantification and mapping to solution pathways 587
References 591
Part D: Solution Pathways towards Transformation 596
Solution Pathways Chapeau 598
Indigenous Knowledge and Local Knowledge Chapeau D 604
12 Transforming systems – principles and levers in action 611
Chapter Summary 612
12.1 Introduction 615
12.2 Science-policy rationales for system transformation 616
12.3 Scientific perspectives for system transformations 618
12.4 Six fundamental principles for system transformations 628
12.5 From principles to requirements for intentional action within and beyond existing governance structures . 636
12.6 Lessons from experiences of intentional transformative action principles acting on levers 641
12.7 New policy design for our times 650
Appendix 12.1 Definitions of system transformation and transformative change in global environmental assessment reports 654
References 655
13 Methodology for developing solution pathways towards system transformations 663
Chapter Summary 664
13.1 Introduction 667
13.2 Background 668
13.3 Evaluation of theories of development and environmental change and embracing complexity 670
13.4 Incorporation of Indigenous Knowledge and Local Knowledge 670
13.5 Policy effectiveness, coherence and decision-making 672
13.6 Presenting the 7-step methodology 673
13.7 Presenting the X-curve 675
13.8 Step-by-step description of the 7 steps 677
13.9 Monitoring and evaluation 684
13.10 Concluding thoughts 685
Appendix 13.1 Guidelines for the evaluation process in the GSL Framework 687
References 689
14 Solution pathways for the transformation of economic and financial systems 695
Chapter Summary 696
14.1 Introduction 700
14.2 Solution Pathways to achieve transformative change 707
14.3 Solution Pathway 1: Internalizing the externalities – correcting pricing 711
14.4 Solution Pathway 2: Making sustainability core in economic governance 717
14.5 Solution Pathway 3: Enhancing financial sector resilience and contribution to sustainability 722
14.6 Solution Pathway 4: Fostering non-pricing approaches towards greening behaviours 732
14.7 Combining solutions to achieve the goals 736
14.8 Synergies 737
Appendix 14.1 Additional detail on examples of payment for ecosystem services implementation in selected countries 739
References 744
15 Solution pathways for transformation towards circularity 751
Chapter Summary 752
15.1 Introduction 756
15.2 Potential solutions to achieve transformative change – immediate policy actions and strategic long-term planning 767
15.3 Solutions case studies 793
15.4 Synergies and trade-off interactions with other systems 795
References 797
16 Energy System Transformation Pathways 809
Chapter Summary 810
16.1 Introduction 813
16.2 Solution pathways for energy system transformation 814
16.3 Combination of solutions to achieve the desired goals 836
16.4 Case studies 840
16.5 Implication of the solution pathways on the other systems 842
16.6 Conclusions 845
References 847
17 Food Systems Transformation Pathways 855
Chapter Summary 856
17.1 Introduction 860
17.2 Solution pathways for food system transformation 868
17.3 Combination of solutions to achieve the desired goals 888
17.4 Implications of the solution pathways on the other systems 894
References 896
18 Solution pathways enabling a sustainable and resilient environment for systems transformation 909
Chapter Summary 910
18.1 Introduction 915
18.2 Solution pathways for a resilient and sustainable environment system 919
18.3 Implication of the solution pathways for a resilient sustainable environment on other systems 947
References 949
19 Implications for Different Economic Development Contexts 963
Chapter Summary 964
19.1 Introduction 967
19.2 Country groupings 967
19.3 Transformation of economic Systems 969
19.4 Transformation towards circularity and sustainable materials management 972
19.5 Transformation of energy systems 975
19.6 Transformation of food systems 981
19.7 Transformation of environmental Systems 988
19.8 Implications for the three economic groups 995
19.9 Summary and conclusions 995
Appendix 19.1 Country Data 997
Appendix 19.2 Renewable energy use by region 1007
Appendix 19.3 Disaggregation of model data by country grouping 1008
References 1009
20 Regional Dimensions of the Transformative Solutions for the Global Environmental Crises 1015
Chapter Summary 1016
20.1 Introduction 1024
20.2 Approach 1024
20.3 The GEO-7 Current Trends Scenario is not a Future Option 1025
20.4 Africa Region 1026
20.5 Asia and the Pacific Region 1041
20.6 Eastern European Region 1055
20.7 Latin America and the Caribbean Region 1069
20.8 Western Europe and Other Groups 1088
20.9 Changing Interrelationships Across Regions 1103
20.10 Conclusion 1107
Appendix 20.1 Eastern Europe Key Trends Across the 2030-2040-2050 Milestones 1108
References 1111
21 Driving the transformations 1123
Chapter Summary 1124
21.1 Introduction 1128
21.2 Co-producing transformations across systems and regions 1128
21.3 Overcoming barriers and breaking lock-ins 1131
21.4 Leveraging motivation 1136
21.5 Accelerating a sustainable transformation 1149
21.6 Concluding thoughts 1153
References 1154
Annex 1 1160
Annex 2 1163
Annex 3 1166
Contributors 1168
Abbreviations and Acronyms 1185
Glossary 1192
해시태그
관련자료
AI 100자 요약·번역서비스
인공지능이 자동으로 요약·번역한 내용입니다.
Global Environment Outlook 7 : A Future We Choose
(지구환경전망 7(GEO-7) : 우리가 선택한 미래)