To the reader 7

Preface 9

Summary 12

1 Economic Outlook 22

1.1 Global Economy 22

1.1.1 Growth prospects 22

1.1.2 Financial markets and commodities 24

1.1.3 Global trade 25

1.2 Foreign Trade 28

1.2.1 Exports and imports 28

1.2.2 Balance of payments 31

1.3 Prices and costs 37

1.4 Wages and incomes 42

1.4.1 Wages 42

1.4.2 Households’ income 45

1.5 Consumption 47

1.6 Investments 53

1.7 Domestic production 58

1.7.1 GDP and productivity 58

1.7.2 Sectors 60

1.8 Labour market 64

1.9 Medium-term outlook for 2029–2030 69

2 General Government Finances 73

2.1 General government 73

2.2 Central government 80

2.3 Municipal administration 85

2.4 Wellbeing services counties 89

2.5 Social security funds 93

2.5.1 Employment pension schemes 93

2.5.2 Other social security funds 96

Themes:

Finland's strategic dependencies are well known 33

Public debt in the long term 78