Macro Outlook 2026: Sturdy Growth, Stagnant Jobs, Stable Prices

Growth Remains Sturdy 2

Higher GDP Need Not Mean More Jobs 7

Disinflation Gets Back on Track 8

Policy Rates Converging Downward 11

Better Growth Lower Inflation Still a Tailwind for Markets 15

Macro Risks From Recession or Rates Upside 16

The Cycle Versus Valuation in AI and Beyond 17

Another Year for Diversification 18

Appendix 21

Disclosure Appendix 22