목차
About This Report iii
Summary v
Figures and Tables viii
CHAPTER 1 1
The RAND Ontological Model for Assessing Nuclear Crisis Escalation Risk 1
Theoretical and Historical Background 2
Organization of This Report 5
CHAPTER 2 6
How ROMANCER Works and Potential Pitfalls 6
How ROMANCER Works 6
How to Use ROMANCER 14
How Not to Use ROMANCER 18
CHAPTER 3 20
Interpreting ROMANCER Outputs 20
Escalation Ratchet 20
Nothing Happens 22
Fight-Leaning vs. Flight-Leaning Temperaments 23
Agents with Dissimilar Escalation Ladders 25
Freeze-Leaning vs. Fight-Leaning Temperaments 27
General Observations 29
CHAPTER 4 30
Conclusions and Ideas for Future Work 30
APPENDIX 32
Literature Review 32
Abbreviations 41
References 42
