About This Report iii

Summary iv

Figures and Tables viii

CHAPTER 1 1

Introduction 1

Purpose of This Report 2

Scope 2

Outline of This Report 3

CHAPTER 2 4

Challenges and Prior Research 4

Challenges 4

Prior Work 5

CHAPTER 3 8

The Method 8

Step 1: Formulate a Theory of DoD and PLA Programmatic Choices and Trade-Offs 8

Step 2: Formulate Competing Hypotheses 8

Step 3: Identify and Conduct Comparative Case Studies to Test Hypotheses and Theory 9

Step 4: Revisit Theory and Assess Implications 11

CHAPTER 4 12

The Theory and Framework for Comparative Analysis 12

Context and Research Question 12

Factors to Consider 12

The Theory 21

Implications 22

CHAPTER 5 24

Experimental Design 24

Criteria 24

Programs 25

CHAPTER 6 26

Limitations of Theory, Method, and Experimental Design 26

Limitations of Our Theory 26

Limitations of Our Method 26

Limitations of Our Experimental Design 27

CHAPTER 7 28

Conclusion and Next Steps 28

Abbreviations 29

References 30