How Artificial Intelligence Could Reshape Four Essential Competitions in Future Warfare

About This Report iii

Summary v

Figures and Tables ix

CHAPTER 1 Introduction 1

Assumptions About AI 1

Mechanisms Through Which AI Could Change Warfare 2

A Framework for Analysis: Building Block Competitions 5

CHAPTER 2 Quality Versus Quantity 11

How AI Can Help Both Quantity and Quality in Air Combat 12

How Much Quality Is Enough to Overcome Greater Quantity? 13

What Are Potential Limiting Factors on Embracing Mass? 18

Conclusion 23

CHAPTER 3 Hider Versus Finder 25

How AI Can Help Finders 26

How AI Can Help Hiders 28

When Will AI Help Hiders or Finders More? 31

Conclusion 32

CHAPTER 4 Centralized Versus Decentralized Command and Control 35

How AI Can Help Both Centralized and Decentralized Command and Control Architectures 36

Why Mission Command Will Remain Desirable 37

Will AI-Enabled Swarming Change Command and Control Paradigms? 40

Conclusion 41

CHAPTER 5 Cyber Offense Versus Cyber Defense 43

How AI Can Help Both Attackers and Defenders Find Cyber Vulnerabilities 44

How AI Can Help Detect and Hide an Attacker’s Maneuvers and Effects 46

How AI Can Help Patch and Exploit Cyber Vulnerabilities 48

Conclusion 48

CHAPTER 6

Conclusion 51

Summary of Predictions 51

Implications for the U.S Military 52

Remaining Uncertainties and Next Steps 55

APPENDIX Estimating the Cost Ratio Between an Me 262 and a P-51D 57

Abbreviations 59

Bibliography 61

About the Authors 69