LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS 6

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 8

INTRODUCTION 10

1. FRAGILITY AND INSTABILITY: EVOLUTION OF THE EU AND OTHER ACTORS 12

1.1 Concepts and definitions 13

1.2 Approaches to fragility, resilience and the HDP nexus 16

2. THE LOCAL DIMENSIONS OF INSTABILITY: DECENTRALISATION AND LOCAL GOVERNANCE AS THE KEY TO PREVENTING FRAGILITY AND INSTABILITY 21

2.1. Fragility’s local dimensions and the role of decentralisation 21

2.2. Cooperation formats that work in fragile contexts 27

3. DECENTRALISED COOPERATION AND CITY/SUBNATIONAL DIPLOMACY AS KEY TOOLS TO MAINTAIN EU ENGAGEMENT IN FRAGILE SETTINGS 31

3.1 Evolution of decentralised cooperation as an operational tool for EU engagement in fragile settings 32

3.2 City and subnational diplomacy as a complementary political tool in fragile settings 34

3.3 Integrating decentralised cooperation and subnational diplomacy into the EU’s toolbox for fragile settings 35

4. LESSONS LEARNT FROM THE NICOSIA INITIATIVE ON DECENTRALISED COOPERATION BETWEEN LIBYA AND THE EU 38

4.1 Institutional design and facilitation: the CoR as intermediary 39

4.2 Approaches to local capacity strengthening through peer-to-peer cooperation 40

4.3 Subnational diplomacy and the creation of safe political space 41

4.5 Key takeaways and limitations 42

5. CASE STUDIES OF FRAGILE SETTINGS WITH POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED ENGAGEMENT THROUGH DECENTRALISED COOPERATION 44

5.1 Cross-border municipal cooperation in the African Great Lakes (PALPGL) 45

5.2 Municipal Coordination in a Protracted Urban Crisis (Beirut Municipal Social Cell) 48

5.3 Decentralised cooperation on capacity building and technical assistance between Ukrainian and EU LRAs during wartime 50

5.4 Local governance in Türkiye’s earthquake-affected regions 53

5.5 Local governance in a context of protracted, migration-driven fragility in Jordan 56

5.6 A city-led approach to integrating displaced communities (the Sustainable Urban Integration of Displacement-Affected Communities - SUIDAC) 58

5.7 Key takeaways 60

CONCLUSIONS 63

Recommendations 65

ANNEXES 68

REFERENCES 71