Title page 1

Contents 3

Foreword by the European Commissioner for Crisis Management and by the European Commissioner for Innovation, Research, Culture, Education, and Youth 5

Abstract 6

Acknowledgements 7

Executive summary 8

1. INTRODUCTION 11

2. THE SCIENCE-POLICY INTERFACE: EVIDENCE-BASED POLICIES 16

3. CROSS-BORDER RISKS IN EUROPE 19

3.1. Defining cross-border risk 20

3.2. Overview of main cross-border risks in Europe 21

3.2.1. Wildfires 21

3.2.2. Droughts 28

3.2.3. Floods 36

3.2.4. Earthquakes 40

3.2.5. Chemical industrial risks 50

3.2.6. Nuclear and radiological accidents 59

3.2.7. Natech events 65

3.2.8. Cross-border impacts on networks due to natural hazards 69

3.2.9. Health risks 76

4. EMERGING RISKS: NEW HAZARDS AND THREATS AND SOCIETAL CHANGES 84

4.1. Defining emerging risks 85

4.2. A systemic perspective for future risks in the EU 86

4.3. Overview of the main emerging risks in the EU 87

4.3.1. Food security 87

4.3.2. Energy risks: Hydrogen 91

4.3.3. Energy risks: Lithium-ion batteries 100

4.3.4. Hybrid threats 106

4.3.5. Biodiversity loss 110

4.3.6. Financial risks 117

4.3.7. Armed Conflict risks 122

4.3.8. Disinformation 127

5. STRATEGIC FORESIGHT FOR BETTER ANTICIPATION 137

6. FACILITATING EVIDENCE-BASED DECISION-MAKING IN DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT THROUGH KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND ANALYTICAL TOOLS 141

6.1. Disaster Risk Management Knowledge Centre 142

6.2. The Science Pillar of the UCPKN 143

6.3. Risk Data Hub 143

Conclusion 148

References 151

List of abbreviations and definitions 165

Annex I - EU-wide used supporting methodologies, tools and projects 171

Annex II - Case studies 176

Tables 170

Table 1. Earthquakes in Europe since 2002, for which the EUSF was requested and granted 41

Table 2. Registered incidents of release of Toxic Industrial Chemicals according to the operational headquarters of the State Environmental... 58

Table 3. Extract from comprehensive table (Annex II) of an example related to the impacts on critical infrastructures in Germany, the Netherlands,... 71

Table 4. Main antibiotic-resistant bacteria reported in the EU 78

Table 5. Consequences of hydrogen events reported in HIAD and ARIA 95

Table 6. Types of horizon scanning 139

Table 7. Case studies of events with significant cross-border impacts on networks providing essential services 176

Figures 168

Figure 1. Trends in the average burnt area in Europe 2006-2024 22

Figure 2. Trends in the average number of fires in Europe 2006-2024 22

Figure 3. Fire danger in Europe on 20 July 2023 23

Figure 4. Additional number of days per year with high-to-extreme fire danger (daily Fire Weather Index >= 30) for different levels of global... 24

Figure 5. CO2 emissions in 2022 compared to the average in the period 2003-2021 (tonnes) 25

Figure 6. Greece, Wildfires - EU response 26

Figure 7. Projected changes in the likelihood of drought events (soil moisture) 28

Figure 8. Drought risk for agriculture in Europe (annual average yield losses, %) 29

Figure 9. Drought, heatwave and wildfires in Europe during the summer of 2022 30

Figure 10. Geography of global transboundary effects (due to climate impacts in the rest of the world, via international trade) in Gross domestic... 31

Figure 11. Temporal evolution of the severe spring drought in northern Europe in 2022, as shown by maps of the European Drought Observatory... 34

Figure 12. Impact chain of drought risk for public water supply in EU27 35

Figure 13. EUSF granted for earthquake events: percentage by Country (left) and overall amount per Year (right) 42

Figure 14. Situation map on the Türkiye and Syria earthquake started of 6 February 2023 44

Figure 15. The EMS defines vulnerability classes for different building types (left) as well as damage grades for building types, including masonry... 45

Figure 16. The top panel (a) highlights regions where the mean peak ground acceleration (PGA) values for ESHM20 increased (shown in red)... 48

Figure 17. Seveso number of major accidents (y-axis) reported to the EU's eMARS system from 2010 to 2019 51

Figure 18. Detail of Seveso Plants within 5 kilometres of a border (green: internal EU border, blue: external EU border and yellow: sea border) 53

Figure 19. Seveso fuel storage sites in the EU 54

Figure 20. Major accidents reported to eMARS with cross-boundary impacts 55

Figure 21. Environmental pressures on the Oder River basin 56

Figure 22. Example of Source Term dynamics - MAAP code (Te-132, VVER-1000) 61

Figure 23. JRC Radioactivity Environmental Monitoring Map (EURDEP) 62

Figure 24. Map representing cloud arrival time (h) - Scenario 4 - Air mass trajectory Cluster 6 63

Figure 25. Structure of the DAPHNE methodology 64

Figure 26. In the Hungarian part of the Tisza River, an estimated 1240 tonnes of fish were killed after the Baia Mare tailings dam breach 66

Figure 27. Example output of RAPID-N showing the fire scenario endpoint distances due to a flood-triggered hazardous substance release 67

Figure 28. Map locating the various cross-border incidents described in Table 3 72

Figure 29. Physical exposure to vector-borne diseases in the EU taking into consideration exposure to aedes mosquitoes and to malaria, zika... 77

Figure 30. Hydrogen use by sector (left) and source of hydrogen for refining (right), historical and in the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario 93

Figure 31. Consequences of hydrogen accidents in eMARS (2000 - present) 95

Figure 32. Percentages related to the causes of the events considering multiple causes per event 96

Figure 33. Projected Global Annual Li-ion Deployments in xEVs for Scenarios 100

Figure 34. Seveso sites identified in eSPIRS as lithium-ion battery production sites 102

Figure 35. Thermal runaway propagation of a lithium battery 103

Figure 36. Graphical representation of the Conceptual Model 107

Figure 37. Graphical representation of the CORE model 108

Figure 38. The Global Risks Landscape 2021 perceived by scientists 111

Figure 39. The Global Risks Landscape 2021 perceived by business leaders 112

Figure 40. Regions exposed to high intensities of multiple drivers 114

Figure 41. Outputs from Globioweb forecasting the future of biodiversity intactness in 2050 for the region of Brittany (France) under the scenario... 116

Figure 42. Public finance losses due to banking crises (% EU GDP) 118

Figure 43. Share of transition risk exposure of financial investments of selected financial investors 120

Figure 44. Climate-related risk at country level: the maximum possible loss (deterioration in their returns in percent) of a financial institution... 121

Figure 45. Trends in armed conflict, 1989-2021 123

Figure 46. Conflict-related fatalities in 2022 124

Figure 47. Heatmap showing the spread of the 12 supernarratives (01 Jan 2020 to 31 Dec 2022). The heatmap allows the reader to analyse and... 132

Figure 48. Heatmap showing the spread of anti-vax subnarratives, divided by narratives (01 Jan 2020 to 31 Dec 2022) 132

Figure 49. Timeline showing the spread over time of "anti-vax narratives," "anti-mandatory vaccination narratives," and "anti-vax conspiracy theories." 133

Figure 50. Country distribution for anti-vax narratives 134

Figure 51. Table showing the source country distribution of "anti-vax narratives" and "pro-Russia narratives" around the Sputnik V vaccine and... 135

Figure 52. Focus on Russian unverified sources 136

Figure 53. RDH Data Viewer, showing exposed asset (population) and hazard layer for river floods (200-year return period) 145

Figure 54. RDH Data Viewer, showing exposed asset (population) and hazard layer for river floods (200-year return period) 146

Figure 55. RDH vulnerability dashboards showing European average vulnerability at the level of NUTS3 averaging five dimensions (social,... 147

Figure 56. Current Risk Landscape 149