Foreword by the International Civil Aviation Organization 4

Foreword by Airports Council International World 5

Foreword by World Economic Forum and industry leaders 6 Executive summary 8

1 Ambitious pragmatism 9

1.1 Overall progress in 2025 9

1.2 Expectations for 2026 9

1.3 Drivers of optimism 10

1.4 Challenges ahead 11

1.5 Industry priorities and trends for 2026 12

2 Technology trends 14

2.1 SAF availability and scalability 14

2.2 Infrastructure readiness for SAF along the supply chain 17

2.3 Access to clean energy and the role of hydrogen for airports and flight operations 17

2.4 Developments in aircraft powertrains – hydrogen, hybrid and eVTOL 19

2.5 Boosting efficiency and sustainability through AI and data 19

3 Policy and geopolitical trends 21

3.1 Energy security could boost fossil-free fuels 21

3.2 SAF policy 22

3.3 Carbon pricing 27

3.4 Implementation of CORSIA 28

3.5 Trade tensions, tariffs and export controls affect aviation supply chains 28

3.6 Commodity and feedstock flows 30

3.7 Constraints to airspace and military emissions 32 3.8 Multilateralism, under strain globally, holds firm in aviation 32

4 Economic trends 33

4.1 Passenger and cargo trends: uneven growth across regions 33

4.2 Aircraft and engine manufacturing bottlenecks 35

4.3 SAF affordability and price 37

4.4 SAF partnerships, offtakes and voluntary demand 40

4.5 Fuel refining activity, oil markets and overall implications 44

5 Wider industry trends 45

5.1 Climate resilience of airport infrastructure amid extreme weather events 45

5.2 Workforce instability presents ongoing challenges 46

5.3 Operational disruptions from cyber-attacks and digital system failures 47

5.4 Energy system outages and grid reliability risks 47

Conclusion 48

Appendix 1 A longer-term look at SAF demand 49

Appendix 2 Methodology for main analysis 59

Contributors 60

Acknowledgements 61

Endnotes 62