1 From humiliation to rejuvenation: The symbolic and strategic significance of 2049  7

Symbolism: National rejuvenation by 2049  7

Objectives and strategy: Self-sufficiency in a multipolar world  8

China’s ambitions in the Indo-Pacific: A Sino-centric regional order  9

2 A “world-class military” by 2049  12

The meaning of a “world-class military”: What we do and do not know  12

Military modernisation: Prioritising power projection in the Taiwan Strait and the wider Western Pacific  14

Military reform: Centralisation of power and the development of joint operations capabilities  21

As strong as it seems? Limited combat experience, corruption, purges, and inefficiency  23

3 Scenarios: The Indo-Pacific by 2049?  25

Scenario 1: Forgone Formosa: “Peaceful reunification” through a blockade of Taiwan  27

Scenario 2: Thucydides Trapped: A U.S.-China war of attrition along the First Island Chain  32

Scenario 3: Sino-centric Seas: China’s emerging primacy amid U.S. retrenchment  40

4 Implications for European Security and Policy Outlook  48

Implications for the Netherlands, the EU, and NATO  48

Policy outlook and recommendations  50