Title page 1

Contents 1

Abstract 2

Non-Technical Summary 3

1. Introduction 4

2. The Communication Game Setup 9

3. Equilibrium Communication Policy 19

4. Model Predictions 25

5. Simulation 31

6. Empirical Analysis: Fed Communication 32

6.1. Message Space in Practice 32

6.2. Reputation, Confidence, and Uncertainty 37

6.3. Specification and Results 38

7. Conclusion 44

References 46

Acknowledgements 51

Tables 26

Table 1. Calibration 26

Table 2. Message Space Measures, Confidence and Reputation 42

Figures 24

Figure 1. Reputation Guides the Interpretation of Announcements 24

Figure 2. Message Space: Count and Span 27

Figure 3. Message Space for Varied Confidence and Reputation 28

Figure 4. Confidence and Span 30

Figure 5. Message Spaces Over Time 31

Figure 6. Alternative Statement Count Over Time 34

Figure 7. Distance Between Alternative Statements Over Time 36

Figure 8. Text-Based Measures of Confidence and Reputation 39

Figure 9. Communication, Confidence, and Reputation Sensitivity to Controls 43