Title page 1

Content 3

Acronyms and Abbreviations 4

Acknowledgments 7

Foreword 8

Message 9

1. Introduction 13

Objective 13

Methodology 14

Report Structure 15

Part A: From Villages to Vibrant Cities and Towns - Unique Urbanization in the Pacific Island Countries 16

2. The Pacific Urban Transition 17

3. Key Drivers and Features of Urbanization 25

Drivers of migration 26

Land tenure and affordability 30

Institutional frameworks 32

4. Urban Growth Trajectories and Types 37

Urban Growth Trajectories 37

Urban Growth Types 38

Part B: Urban Futures in the Pacific - Unlocking Urban Potential with Growing Risk 44

5. The Untapped Potential of Pacific Cities and Towns 45

6. Growing Disaster and Climate Risk 53

Risks facing Pacific cities and towns 53

Tropical cyclones 58

Sea level rise 61

Floods and droughts 62

Earthquakes, tsunami, and volcanic activity 64

An uncertain future with increasing risk 66

Part C: From Risk to Resilience - The Urban Opportunity in Pacific Island Countries 68

7. Building Blocks for Resilient, Sustainable, and Inclusive Urbanization in PICs 69

Existing Efforts in Pacific Urban Areas 70

BUILDING BLOCK 1: Strengthen risk-informed urban management systems 84

BUILDING BLOCK 2: Invest in Resilient Infrastructure and Housing 91

BUILDING BLOCK 3: Enhance City Preparedness for Shocks 96

BUILDING BLOCK 4: Prioritize Social Inclusion and Communities 102

8. Conclusion 107

Tables 6

Table 1. Key hazards across PICs 23

Table 2. Urban governance frameworks in PICs 32

Table 3. City by urban growth trajectory and type 41

Table 4. Hazard vulnerability of PICs 54

Table 5. Exposure at risk projections 56

Table 6. Exposure at risk rankings across 38 urban areas 57

Figures 4

Figure 1. Aerial view of Apia, Samoa. Samoa is experiencing uneven and often unmanaged urbanization, which poses challenges,... 12

Figure 2. Suva city center, Fiji. The urban population of Fiji is expected to reach almost 70% of the overall population by 2050 14

Figure 3. PIC urbanization projections 19

Figure 4. PIC urban population trajectories 20

Figure 5. Annualized growth in GDP per capita compared to urban population growth (2000-2023) 21

Figure 6. Urban streetscape, Funafuti, Tuvalu. Funafuti is an example of linear development, with urban growth and development... 24

Figure 7. Urban marketplace, Honiara, Solomon Islands 26

Figure 8. Poverty rates in PICs 27

Figure 9. Share of national poor population by location 27

Figure 10. Employment sectors in PICs by location 28

Figure 11. Basic service access in PICs 29

Figure 12. Post-Cyclone Winston reconstruction in Fiji 34

Figure 13. Urbanization vs. urban growth rates and population (thousands), 2020 39

Figure 14. Three types of urban growth in PICs 39

Figure 15. Aerial view of Honiara, Solomon Islands. With the historical absence of a formal planning framework, Honiara has experienced... 42

Figure 16. Population density of Honiara 43

Figure 17. Community-level infrastructure improvements in Honiara 43

Figure 18. Youth not in education, employment, or training (ages 15-24) 46

Figure 19. Urban settlement in Vanuatu 48

Figure 20. Land cover of Port Moresby 49

Figure 21. Port Moresby flood probability 50

Figure 22. Building in Luganville, Vanuatu, that was damaged during Tropical Cyclone Harold 51

Figure 23. Vulnerable populations in high-density coastal settlements impacted by tropical cyclones 58

Figure 24. Map of tropical cyclones since 1980 and significant events since 2010 59

Figure 25. Homes being reconstructed in Fiji following Cyclone Winston 60

Figure 26. Signboard in South Tarawa, Kiribati, highlighting the low elevation of the atoll nation and the threat of rising sea levels. (World Bank) 61

Figure 27. Drainage infrastructure in South Tarawa, Kiribati 63

Figure 28. Rescue efforts in Port Vila, Vanuatu, following the December 17 earthquake. (Niki Kuatonga) 64

Figure 29. Classroom following Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcanic eruption and subsequent tsunami and ashfall. (World Bank) 65

Figure 30. Improvised sea wall in the Federated States of Micronesia 67

Figure 31. Aerial view of Apia, Samoa 67

Figure 32. Building blocks for resilient, sustainable and inclusive urbanization in the Pacific 70

Figure 33. Participatory planning with students in Savai'i, Samoa 71

Figure 34. A causeway in Kiribati 72

Figure 35. Artist's impression of potential streetscape upgrading interventions in Majuro. (World Bank) 75

Figure 36. Vaigaga Primary School reconstruction in Samoa 76

Figure 37. Construction in Tonga 77

Figure 38. Etas site plan (VARS Project Team) 80

Figure 39. A climate-resilient road in Noro, Solomon Islands 81

Figure 40. Produce for sale on a footpath in Sigotaka, Fiji 83

Figure 41. Housing affected by Cyclone Winston in Fiji 92

Figure 42. Critical forecasting equipment at the Vanuatu Meteorology and Geohazards Department 97

Figure 43. Rainwater tanks in South Tarawa, Kiribati 97

Figure 44. Public buses at the Mulinu'u Road Bus Station, Apia, Samoa 98

Figure 45. Public space in South Tarawa, Kiribati 101

Figure 46. Framework for PIC cities to develop an urban resilience strategy 109

Boxes 6

Box 1. Drivers Of Urbanization In The Pacific 27

Box 2. Urban Sprawl in Honiara, Solomon Islands 42

Box 3. Increasing Risk and Urbanization Challenges in Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea 49

Box 4. Increasing Exposure of People and Assets To Flood, Strong Wind, and Earthquake Hazards 56

Box 5. Tropical Cyclone Winston Impacts On Suva, Fiji 60

Box 6. 2024 Earthquake In Vanuatu 64

Box 7. Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Volcanic Eruption In Tonga 65

Box 8. Kiribati: Outer Islands Resilience and Adaptation Project (KOIRAP) 72

Box 9. Stengthening Risk-Informed Urban Planning and Building Codes in the Marshall Islands 75

Box 10. Tonga Housing Baseline Condition Assessment 77

Box 11. Jenrok Community-Based Early Warning System 78

Box 12. Planned Resilient Development and Urban Upgrading in Vanuatu 80

Box 13. Solomon Islands - Community Access And Urban Services Enhancement Project (CAUSE) 81

Box 14. Catastrophe Risk Insurance Products for Housing in the Pacific 92

Box 15. Multi-Modal And Active Transport in Pacific Cities 98